Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models

Vassili Bazinas,B. Nielsen

Published 2015 in Econometrics

ABSTRACT

We propose a method to explore the causal transmission of an intervention through two endogenous variables of interest. We refer to the intervention as a catalyst variable. The method is based on the reduced-form system formed from the conditional distribution of the two endogenous variables given the catalyst. The method combines elements from instrumental variable analysis and Cholesky decomposition of structural vector autoregressions. We give conditions for uniqueness of the causal transmission.

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