On the Prediction of Forecast Skill

No abstract is available for this paper.

• Publication year

  1988

• Venue

  Monthly Weather Review

• Publication date

  1988-12-01

• Fields of study

  Mathematics, Physics, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<2453:OTPOFS>2.0.CO;2
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• No references are available for this paper.

• Performance and Regime of Ensemble Perturbations in Sampling Initial and Forecast Errors at Multiple Spatial Scales in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System

  2026cites this paper
• Predicting the forecast skill for the European region with the use of machine learning models

  2022cites this paper
• Jumpiness Correction for Station Numerical Weather Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithm

  2022cites this paper
• Design and Construction of Daily-updating Objective Climate Prediction System Based on the Real-time Forecast of CFSv2

  2022cites this paper
• A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force

  2021cites this paper
• Identifying Periods of Forecast Model Confidence for Improved Subseasonal Prediction of Precipitation

  2020cites this paper
• Optimal error analysis of MJO prediction associated with uncertainties in sea surface temperature over Indian Ocean

  2020cites this paper
• Historical perspective: earlier ensembles and forecasting forecast skill

  2019influential citation
• Ensemble Forecasting

  2019cites this paper
• Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part II: Probabilistic and Deterministic Forecast Skill

  2018cites this paper
• The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years

  2018cites this paper
• Introduction to the special issue on “25 years of ensemble forecasting”

  2018cites this paper
• Predictability of large-scale atmospheric motions: Lyapunov exponents and error dynamics.

  2017cites this paper
• Assessing the fidelity of predictability estimates

  2017cites this paper
• Heavy Precipitation Events in the Western Mediterranean Area: Physical Processes and Predictability

  2016cites this paper
• Ensemble Methods in Meteorological Modelling

  2016cites this paper
• Application of the AROME non-hydrostatic model at the Hungarian Meteorological Service : physical parameterizations and ensemble forecasting

  2015cites this paper
• Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) for Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

  2015cites this paper
• Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Error Predictions and Their Applications

  2015influential citation
• Relating the skill of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to the synoptic environment

  2013cites this paper
• PREDICTING THE EXPECTED SKILL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTS USING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS

  2012cites this paper
• HESS Opinions "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain : curse or blessing?"

  2011cites this paper
• Advances in Geosciences Forecast convergence score : a forecaster ’ s approach to analysing hydrometeorological forecast systems

  2011cites this paper
• Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems

  2011cites this paper
• Chapter 7 - Statistical Forecasting

  2011cites this paper
• Relationship between High-Impact Weather Events in Japan and Propagation of Rossby Waves along the Asian Jet in July 2004

  2009cites this paper
• - 1-Atmospheric Predictability

  2007cites this paper
• Atmospheric Predictability

  2007cites this paper
• Predictability of Weather and Climate: Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system

  2006cites this paper
• Predictability in a Model of Geophysical Turbulence

  2005cites this paper
• Historical Overview of Numerical Weather Prediction

  2005cites this paper
• Probabilistic mesoscale forecast error prediction using short-range ensembles

  2004cites this paper
• Seasonality in SST-forced atmospheric short-term climate predictability

  2004cites this paper
• Effects of nesting frequency and lateral boundary perturbations on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts

  2003cites this paper
• Short-to-Medium-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction : the LEPS system

  2003cites this paper
• Weather forecasts, Weather derivatives, Black-Scholes, Feynmann-Kac and Fokker-Planck

  2003cites this paper
• A new approach to the cumulus parameterization issue

  2003cites this paper
• A new parametric model for the assessment and calibration of medium‐range ensemble temperature forecasts

  2003cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Numerical discretization of the equations of motion

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: References

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Coding and checking the tangent linear and the adjoint models

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Data assimilation

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: The continuous equations

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Historical overview of numerical weather prediction

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Introduction to the parameterization of subgrid-scale physical processes

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Post-processing of numerical model output to obtain station weather forecasts

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: The early history of NWP

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Foreword

  2002cites this paper
• Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability: Atmospheric predictability and ensemble forecasting

  2002cites this paper
• Objective Verification of the SAMEX ’98 Ensemble Forecasts

  2001cites this paper
• Southern Hemisphere Medium-Range Forecast Skill and Predictability: A Comparison of Two Operational Models

  2001cites this paper
• The Relationship between Ensemble Spread and Ensemble Mean Skill

  1998cites this paper
• Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988

  1998cites this paper
• Climatology of Northern Hemisphere blocking in the ECHAM model

  1997cites this paper
• Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method

  1997cites this paper
• Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Climate Means and the Role of the ENSO Cycle: A Model Study

  1997cites this paper
• Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979 – 1988

  1997cites this paper
• Transient error growth and local predictability: a study in the Lorenz system

  1995cites this paper
• Formulation of gaussian probability forecasts based on model extended‐range integrations

  1994cites this paper
• Predictability experiments with persistence forecasts in a red‐noise atmosphere

  1994cites this paper
• Review of Recent Advances in Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting for the Extratropics

  1993cites this paper
• Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations

  1993cites this paper
• A method to determine the theoretical maximum error growth in atmospheric models

  1993cites this paper
• Previsioni sperimentali a lungo termine all'ECMWF: Previsione della precipitazione a scala subsinottica

  1992cites this paper
• Local error growth in a barotropic model

  1992cites this paper
• Dynamical one-month forecast experiments with the JMA global prediction model

  1991cites this paper
• Advances and prospects in numerical weather prediction

  1991cites this paper
• Variation of the predictability in a low‐order spectral model of the atmospheric circulation

  1991cites this paper
• The Bakerian Lecture, 1991 The predictability of weather and climate

  1991cites this paper
• Advances in Numerical Prediction of the Atmospheric Circulation in the Extratropics

  1990cites this paper
• Extended range predictions with ECMWF models : influence of horizontal resolution on systematic error and forecast skill

  1990cites this paper
• Assessment of the practical utility of extended range ensemble forecasts

  1990cites this paper
• Extended‐range predictions with ECMWF models: Time‐lagged ensemble forecasting

  1990cites this paper
• UAJ'J*"')'. )S£^

  year unknowncites this paper
• 3. Verification Methods for Nwp Model Output 3.1 Definitions 3.1.1 Miscellaneous Terms

  year unknowncites this paper
• Two Years of Operational Prediction of Forecast Skill at NMC

  year unknowncites this paper