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Soil Chemistry Aspects of Predicting Future Phosphorus Requirements in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Daniel Magnone,V. Niasar,A. Bouwman,A. Beusen,S. van der Zee,S. Z. Sattari

Published 2019 in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

ABSTRACT

Phosphorus (P) is a finite resource and critical to plant growth and therefore food security. Regional‐ and continental‐scale studies propose how much P would be required to feed the world by 2050. These indicate that Sub‐Saharan Africa soils have the highest soil P deficit globally. However, the spatial heterogeneity of the P deficit caused by heterogeneous soil chemistry in the continental scale has never been addressed. We provide a combination of a broadly adopted P‐sorption model that is integrated into a highly influential, large‐scale soil phosphorus cycling model. As a result, we show significant differences between the model outputs in both the soil‐P concentrations and total P required to produce future crops for the same predicted scenarios. These results indicate the importance of soil chemistry for soil‐nutrient modeling and highlight that previous influential studies may have overestimated P required. This is particularly the case in Somalia where conventional modeling predicts twice as much P required to 2050 as our new proposed model.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2019

  • Venue

    Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

  • Publication date

    2019-01-01

  • Fields of study

    Chemistry, Environmental Science

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.1029/2018MS001367
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

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