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National and Supranational Business Cycles (1960-2000): A Multivariate Description of Central G7 and Euro15 Nipa Aggregates

Bernd Süssmuth

Published 2002 in Social Science Research Network

ABSTRACT

This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the salient business cycle characteristics of central NIPA aggregates for the G7. Furthermore, their role in contributing to the supranational G7 and EURO15 cyclic dynamics is investigated. Several refinements of conventional methods are suggested. Three different detrending filters are used, including ones that tend to distort the spectrum in opposite directions. As advocated in the literature, features of the spectra which survive these different detrending procedures are considered to be robust. The study reveals evidence of significant classical business cycles with frequencies corresponding to about two to four and about seven to ten years period lengths that are both reflected also in the spectra of the two supranational economies.The central findings are summarized with regard to (i) national product share, contribution-to-variance and volatility charateristics, (ii) explained variance and prominence of the cyclicalities contained in the different macro-aggregates and (iii) lead-lag and coherence relationships with national and supranational product cycles.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2002

  • Venue

    Social Science Research Network

  • Publication date

    Unknown publication date

  • Fields of study

    Business, Economics

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.2139/ssrn.301262
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

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