New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders.

• Publication year

  2017

• Venue

  Ecosystem services

• Publication date

  2017-08-24

• Fields of study

  Business, Economics, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/J.ECOSER.2017.08.006
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century

  2017cited by this paper
• Stakeholders’ perspectives on the operationalisation of the ecosystem service concept: Results from 27 case studies

  2017cited by this paper
• Adoption of the ecosystem services concept in EU policies

  2017cited by this paper
• Investigating potential transferability of place-based research in land system science

  2016cited by this paper
• Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

  2016cited by this paper
• Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

  2015cited by this paper
• Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change

  2015cited by this paper
• Reviewing drivers of ecosystem change as input for environmental and ecosystem services modelling

  2015influential reference
• Crowdsourcing geographic knowledge: volunteered geographic information (VGI) in theory and practice

  2014cited by this paper
• A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

  2014cited by this paper
• Toward a new conceptualization of household adaptive capacity to climate change: applying a risk governance lens

  2014cited by this paper
• Integrative Scenario Development

  2014influential reference
• Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change with IMAGE 3.0 : Model description and policy applications

  2014cited by this paper
• Citizen Science and Volunteered Geographic Information: Overview and Typology of Participation

  2013cited by this paper
• Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses

  2013cited by this paper
• Ecosystem Services Governance: Managing Complexity?

  2013cited by this paper
• Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use

  2012cited by this paper
• Towards scenarios for a sustainable and equitable future Australia

  2012cited by this paper
• Seeking policy-relevant knowledge: a comparative study of the contextualisation of participatory scenarios for the Narew River and Lake Peipsi

  2012cited by this paper
• Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment

  2011cited by this paper
• Participatory Scenario Planning for Protected Areas Management under the Ecosystem Services Framework: the Doñana Social-Ecological System in Southwestern Spain

  2011cited by this paper
• Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project

  2011cited by this paper
• Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment

  2010cited by this paper
• Insight, part of a Special Feature on Landscape Scenarios and Multifunctionality - Making Land Use Assessment Operational How Personal Judgment Influences Scenario Development: an Example for Future Rural Development in Europe

  2010cited by this paper
• Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: A Manual for Assessment Practitioners

  2010cited by this paper
• Scenario Development and Analysis for Forward-looking Ecosystem Assessments

  2010cited by this paper
• A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

  2009cited by this paper
• The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil

  2009influential reference
• Thinking About Tomorrows: Scenarios, Global Environmental Politics, and Social Science Scholarship

  2009cited by this paper
• GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss

  2009cited by this paper
• Environmental futures : the practice of environmental scenario analysis

  2008cited by this paper
• Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the ‘success’ of national climate scenarios?

  2008cited by this paper
• Chapter Two Towards Guidelines for Environmental Scenario Analysis

  2008cited by this paper
• Local People, Nature Conservation, and Tourism in Northeastern Finland

  2008cited by this paper
• Young Scholars Dialogue, part of a Special Feature on Scenarios of global ecosystem services Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

  2007cited by this paper
• Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments

  2007cited by this paper
• Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

  2007cited by this paper
• Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems

  2007cited by this paper
• Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide

  2006cited by this paper
• Searching for the future of land: scenarios from the local to global scale

  2006influential reference
• A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

  2006cited by this paper
• Linking science and decision-making: features and experience from environmental river flow setting

  2005cited by this paper
• Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers. An Editorial Essay

  2004cited by this paper
• Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers

  2004cited by this paper
• Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response

  2003cited by this paper
• Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments

  2002cited by this paper
• Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead

  2002cited by this paper
• Delphi- and Delphilike approaches with special regard to environmental standard setting

  1988cited by this paper
• Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

  1984cited by this paper
• Emerald Article: the Current State of Scenario Development: an Overview of Techniques the Current State of Scenario Development: an Overview of Techniques

  year unknowncited by this paper

• Minimizing extractivism through 3D printing with law and policy support

  2026cites this paper
• Envisioning the future of European mountain value chains: a participatory foresight approach

  2026cites this paper
• Three concepts: an academic ecologist’s view

  2024cites this paper
• Sustainable land systems in the Anthropocene: Navigating the global land squeeze

  2024cites this paper
• Land Management Drifted: Land Use Scenario Modeling of Trancura River Basin, Araucanía, Chile

  2024cites this paper
• Operationalisation of ecosystem services in support of ecosystem-based marine spatial planning: Insights into needs and recommendations

  2021cites this paper
• Biological diversity and climate change

  2021cites this paper
• CROATIAN RURAL FUTURES IN 2030: FOUR ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR POSTSOCIALIST COUNTRYSIDE IN THE NEWEST E.U. MEMBER STATE

  2021cites this paper
• Contextualizing Scenarios to Explore Social-Ecological Futures: A Three Step Participatory Case Study for the Humboldt Current Upwelling System

  2020cites this paper
• BESTMAP: behavioural, Ecological and Socio-economic Tools for Modelling Agricultural Policy

  2020cites this paper
• Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development

  2020cites this paper
• Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

  2020influential citation
• Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

  2020cites this paper
• Differing perceptions of socio-ecological systems: Insights for future transdisciplinary research

  2019cites this paper
• Combining policy analyses, exploratory scenarios, and integrated modelling to assess land use policy options

  2019cites this paper
• A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture.

  2019cites this paper
• Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development

  2019cites this paper
• Editorial: Operationalisation of natural capital and ecosystem services – Special issue

  2017cites this paper
• Stakeholders’ perspectives on the operationalisation of the ecosystem service concept: Results from 27 case studies

  2017cites this paper
• Handling a messy world: Lessons learned when trying to make the ecosystem services concept operational

  2017cites this paper