We introduce the prediction value (PV) of player i as the difference between the conditional expectations of v(S) when i cooperates or not in a probabilistic TU game. The latter combines a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. The PV reflects the importance of information about a given player’s behavior for predicting, e.g., committee decisions that are subject to opinion interdependencies. The PV is characterized by anonymity, linearity, a consistency requirement and two normalization conditions. Every multinomial probabilistic value, hence every binomial semivalue, coincides with the PV for a particular family of probability distributions. So the PV can be regarded as a power index in specific cases. Conversely, some semivalues—including the Banzhaf but not the Shapley value—can be interpreted in terms of informational importance.
The prediction value
Maurice Koster,Sascha Kurz,Ines Lindner,S. Napel
Published 2013 in Social Choice and Welfare
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- Publication year
2013
- Venue
Social Choice and Welfare
- Publication date
2013-11-22
- Fields of study
Mathematics, Computer Science
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