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Effect of Morphological Asymmetry between Leading and Following Sunspots on the Prediction of Solar Cycle Activity

H. Iijima,Hideyuki Hotta,S. Imada

Published 2019 in Astrophysical Journal

ABSTRACT

The morphological asymmetry of leading and following sunspots is a well-known characteristic of the solar surface. In the context of the large-scale evolution of the surface magnetic field, the asymmetry has been assumed to have only a negligible effect. Using the surface flux transport (SFT) model, we show that the morphological asymmetry of leading and following sunspots has a significant impact on the evolution of the large-scale magnetic field on the solar surface. By evaluating the effect of the morphological asymmetry of each bipolar magnetic region (BMR), we observe that the introduction of asymmetry to the BMR model significantly reduces the contribution to the polar magnetic field, especially for large and high-latitude BMRs. Strongly asymmetric BMRs can even reverse regular polar field formation. The SFT simulations based on the observed sunspot record show that the introduction of morphological asymmetry reduces the root-mean-square difference from the observed axial dipole strength by 30%–40%. These results indicate that the morphological asymmetry of leading and following sunspots has a significant effect on the solar cycle prediction.

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