Between the hammer and the anvil: how the combined effect of global warming and the non-native common slider could threaten the European pond turtle

The European pond turtle Emys orbicularis is seriously threatened across Europe by the non-native common slider, Trachemys scripta, which is included among the 100 most invasive species worldwide. Using ensemble forecast techniques, we analysed the influence of climatic factors on the current distribution of these two species, subsequently projecting the obtained models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to 2050 and 2070, to investigate if global warming would boost direct competition within our study region. We implemented a gap analysis in GIS environment to assess how protected areas (PAs) may be affected by a loss of suitable area for E. orbicularis and by an expansion of T. scripta. An analysis of altitudinal range shift was evaluated, based on obtained projections. We found that both species may gain suitable area in the future, possibly because of the positive effect of increasing temperatures, and are predicted to shift from plain-to-hilly areas towards higher altitudes. These trends result in an increasing overlap of potentially suitable areas for both species, particularly within PAs; moreover, a niche analysis highlights that the results obtained are linked to the environmental niches of the two species. Our findings suggest the necessity, particularly for PAs’ authorities, of field monitoring of T. scripta and further research to more comprehensively assess biotic and abiotic factors influencing the invasiveness of this species.

• Publication year

  2019

• Venue

  Management of Biological Invasions

• Publication date

  Unknown publication date

• Fields of study

  Biology, Geography, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.3391/mbi.2019.10.3.02
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Evidences for a shared history for spectacled salamanders, haplotypes and climate

  2018cited by this paper
• Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

  2018cited by this paper
• Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean

  2018cited by this paper
• Comparing pseudo-absences generation techniques in Boosted Regression Trees models for conservation purposes: A case study on amphibians in a protected area

  2017cited by this paper
• No saturation in the accumulation of alien species worldwide

  2017cited by this paper
• ecospat: an R package to support spatial analyses and modeling of species niches and distributions

  2017cited by this paper
• Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

  2017cited by this paper
• Assessing and predicting shifts in mountain forest composition across 25 years of climate change

  2017cited by this paper
• Using Maximum Entropy Modeling ( MaxEnt ) to predict future trends in the distribution of high altitude endemic insects in response to climate change

  2017cited by this paper
• Unraveling climate influences on the distribution of the parapatric newts Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus

  2017cited by this paper
• Environmental risk assessment for invasive alien species: A case study of apple snails affecting ecosystem services in Europe

  2017influential reference
• Extinction risk of North American seed plants elevated by climate and land‐use change

  2017cited by this paper
• sdm: a reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling

  2016cited by this paper
• Short-term signals of climate change in Italian summit vegetation: observations at two GLORIA sites

  2016cited by this paper
• Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise.

  2015cited by this paper
• Consensus Forecasting of Species Distributions: The Effects of Niche Model Performance and Niche Properties

  2015cited by this paper
• Integrating Multiple Distribution Models to Guide Conservation Efforts of an Endangered Toad

  2015cited by this paper
• Parasite host-switching from the invasive American red-eared slider, Trachemys scripta elegans, to the native Mediterranean pond turtle, Mauremys leprosa, in natural environments

  2015cited by this paper
• Maximum entropy modeling of geographic distributions of the flea beetle species endemic in Italy (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Galerucinae: Alticini)

  2015cited by this paper
• Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications

  2015cited by this paper
• Comparing species distribution models constructed with different subsets of environmental predictors

  2015cited by this paper
• An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies

  2014influential reference
• Mapping Species Distributions with MAXENT Using a Geographically Biased Sample of Presence Data: A Performance Assessment of Methods for Correcting Sampling Bias

  2014cited by this paper
• Tackling Invasive Alien Species in Europe: the Top 20 Issues

  2014influential reference
• Here be dragons: a tool for quantifying novelty due to covariate range and correlation change when projecting species distribution models

  2014cited by this paper
• Interference competition between native Iberian turtles and the exotic Trachemys scripta

  2014cited by this paper
• Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions

  2013cited by this paper
• Sampling design tool for ArcGIS: Instruction manual.[for ESRI ArcGIS 10.0 Service Pack 3 or higher]

  2013influential reference
• Predicting impacts of climate change on medicinal asclepiads of Pakistan using Maxent modeling

  2013cited by this paper
• Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance.

  2013cited by this paper
• Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Abstract for decision-makers

  2013cited by this paper
• The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation

  2013cited by this paper
• Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance

  2013influential reference
• Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: terrestrial species of the Middle Rio Grande

  2013cited by this paper
• Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence‐only data

  2013influential reference
• Influence of macrohabitat preferences on the distribution of European brook and river lampreys: Implications for conservation and management

  2013cited by this paper
• A new method for dealing with residual spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models

  2012cited by this paper
• Ensemble forecasting of potential habitat for three invasive fishes

  2012cited by this paper
• The Roles of Climate, Phylogenetic Relatedness, Introduction Effort, and Reproductive Traits in the Establishment of Non‐Native Reptiles and Amphibians

  2012cited by this paper
• Helminth fauna of a turtle species introduced in Japan, the red-eared slider turtle (Trachemys scripta elegans).

  2012cited by this paper
• Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

  2011cited by this paper
• Three Periods of Regulatory Innovation During Vertebrate Evolution

  2011cited by this paper
• The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

  2011cited by this paper
• Revisiting the historical distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: new insights based on palaeodistribution modelling and palynological evidencegeb

  2011cited by this paper
• The Community Climate System Model Version 4

  2011cited by this paper
• RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

  2011cited by this paper
• MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments

  2011cited by this paper
• Estimating the financial costs of freshwater invasive species in Great Britain: a standardized approach to invasive species costing

  2011influential reference
• Ensemble modelling of species distribution: the effects of geographical and environmental ranges

  2011cited by this paper
• Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

  2011cited by this paper
• Ecological‐Niche Modeling and Prioritization of Conservation‐Area Networks for Mexican Herpetofauna

  2010cited by this paper
• The art of modelling range‐shifting species

  2010cited by this paper
• Ensemble Habitat Mapping of Invasive Plant Species

  2010cited by this paper
• Spatially autocorrelated sampling falsely inflates measures of accuracy for presence‐only niche models

  2009cited by this paper
• From introduction to the establishment of alien species: bioclimatic differences between presence and reproduction localities in the slider turtle

  2009influential reference
• DOES NICHE DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANY ALLOPATRIC DIVERGENCE IN APHELOCOMA JAYS AS PREDICTED UNDER ECOLOGICAL SPECIATION?: INSIGHTS FROM TESTS WITH NICHE MODELS

  2009cited by this paper
• Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models to predict amphibian species richness patterns.

  2009influential reference
• DECADAL PREDICTION Can It Be Skillful ?

  2009cited by this paper
• Alien species in a warmer world: risks and opportunities.

  2009cited by this paper
• BIOMOD – a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

  2009cited by this paper
• Helminth communities of the exotic introduced turtle, Trachemys scripta elegans in southwestern Spain: Transmission from native turtles.

  2009cited by this paper
• Alien Invasive Slider Turtle in Unpredicted Habitat: A Matter of Niche Shift or of Predictors Studied?

  2009cited by this paper
• Dying for knowledge

  2009influential reference
• Environmental Niche Equivalency versus Conservatism: Quantitative Approaches to Niche Evolution

  2008cited by this paper
• Movement and habitat use of two aquatic turtles (Graptemys geographica and Trachemys scripta) in an urban landscape

  2008cited by this paper
• Varying Hydric Conditions during Incubation Influence Egg Water Exchange and Hatchling Phenotype in the Red‐Eared Slider Turtle

  2008cited by this paper
• A working guide to boosted regression trees.

  2008influential reference
• Adding more ecology into species delimitation: ecological niche models and phylogeography help define cryptic species in the black salamander (Aneides flavipunctatus).

  2007cited by this paper
• Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change.

  2007cited by this paper
• Effects of incorporating spatial autocorrelation into the analysis of species distribution data

  2007cited by this paper
• Prediction and validation of the potential global distribution of a problematic alien invasive species — the American bullfrog

  2007cited by this paper
• Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions

  2006influential reference
• Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

  2006influential reference
• Maximum Entropy Modeling

  2005cited by this paper
• Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/joc.1276 VERY HIGH RESOLUTION INTERPOLATED CLIMATE SURFACES FOR GLOBAL LAND AREAS

  2005influential reference
• Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to predict the distributions of New Zealand ’ s freshwater diadromous fish

  2005influential reference
• Gap analysis: concepts, methods, and recent results*

  2004influential reference
• Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

  2004cited by this paper
• Impact of the introduction of the red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans) on survival rates of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis)

  2004cited by this paper
• Avoiding Pitfalls of Using Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning

  2003cited by this paper
• Competition for basking places between the endangered European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis galloitalica) and the introduced red- eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans)

  2003cited by this paper
• Predicting the Geography of Species’ Invasions via Ecological Niche Modeling

  2003cited by this paper
• Generalized Linear Models

  2002influential reference
• Hatching Success of Turtle Eggs Exposed to Dry Incubation Environment

  2000cited by this paper
• A fine‐scaled predictive model for changes in species distribution patterns of high mountain plants induced by climate warming

  1999cited by this paper
• GAP ANALYSIS: A GEOGRAPHIC APPROACH TO PROTECTION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

  1993influential reference
• Life history and ecology of the slider turtle

  1990cited by this paper
• The Anolis Lizards of Bimini: Resource Partitioning in a Complex Fauna

  1968cited by this paper
• Management of Biological Invasions

  year unknowncited by this paper

• Recent evidence on the effectiveness of European protected areas for species conservation in the face of climate change

  2025cites this paper
• Can artificial rearing benefit the natural breeding of European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in its northern distribution range?

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating the thermal dependence of sex ratio into distribution models to predict suitable habitats for the invasive freshwater pond slider turtle, Trachemys scripta

  2025cites this paper
• Present and future distribution of the European pond turtle versus seven exotic freshwater turtles, with a focus on Eastern Europe

  2024cites this paper
• Climate change drives spatiotemporal mismatches between bivalves and mangrove in the Colombian Pacific coast

  2024cites this paper
• Trained quantity discrimination in the invasive red-eared slider and a comparison with the native stripe-necked turtle

  2024cites this paper
• Climate match is key to predict range expansion of the world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates

  2024cites this paper
• Distinct metabolic responses to thermal stress between invasive freshwater turtle Trachemys scripta elegans and native freshwater turtles in China.

  2024cites this paper
• Testing how environmental variables affect the survival of freshwater turtle nests and hatchlings using artificial nests and dummy hatchlings

  2024cites this paper
• Framing challenges and polarized issues in invasion science: toward an interdisciplinary agenda

  2024cites this paper
• The Eurasian beaver range expansion reveals uneven future trends and possible conservation issues: an European assessment

  2023cites this paper
• Worldclim 2.1 versus Worldclim 1.4: Climatic niche and grid resolution affect between‐version mismatches in Habitat Suitability Models predictions across Europe

  2022cites this paper
• Range expansion of the alien red-eared slider Trachemys scripta (Thunberg in Schoepff, 1792) (Reptilia, Testudines) in Eastern Europe, with special reference to Latvia and Ukraine

  2022cites this paper
• Updating Distribution, Ecology, and Hotspots for Three Amphibian Species to Set Conservation Priorities in A European Glacial Refugium

  2022cites this paper
• Addressing conservation measures through fine-tuned species distribution models for an Italian endangered endemic anuran

  2022cites this paper
• Assessing future shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity to old-growth forests to support the conservation of the endangered giant noctule

  2022cites this paper
• Re-evaluating invasive species in degraded ecosystems: a case study of red-eared slider turtles as partial ecological analogs

  2022cites this paper
• Distribution and Potential Limiting Factors of the European Pond Turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Eastern Europe

  2021cites this paper
• Revealing the role of past and current climate in shaping the distribution of two parapatric European bats, Myotis daubentonii and M. capaccinii

  2021influential citation
• A step towards SDMs: A “couple‐and‐weigh” framework based on accessible data for biodiversity conservation and landscape planning

  2021cites this paper
• Non-native pond sliders cause long-term decline of native Sonora mud turtles: a 33-year before-after study in an undisturbed natural environment

  2021cites this paper
• A European perspective of the conservation status of the threatened meadow viper Vipera ursinii (BONAPARTE, 1835) (Reptilia, Viperidae)

  2020cites this paper
• Phylogenetics and population structure of the steppe species Hycleus polymorphus (Coleoptera: Meloidae: Mylabrini) reveal multiple refugia in Mediterranean mountain ranges

  2020cites this paper
• The potentiality of Sentinel-2 to assess the effect of fire events on Mediterranean mountain vegetation

  2020cites this paper
• Endemic and alien vascular plant diversity in the small Mediterranean islands of Sardinia: Drivers and implications for their conservation

  2020cites this paper
• Jumping into the grids: mapping biodiversity hotspots in groundwater habitat types across Europe

  2020cites this paper
• Assessing influence in biofuel production and ecosystem services when environmental changes affect plant–pest relationships

  2020cites this paper
• Current Distribution and Status of Non-Native Freshwater Turtles in the Wild, Republic of Korea

  2020cites this paper
• Forecasting the spread associated with climate change in Eastern Europe of the invasive Asiatic flea beetle, Luperomorpha xanthodera (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

  2020cites this paper
• Preliminary Analysis of the Diet of Triturus carnifex and Pollution in Mountain Karst Ponds in Central Apennines

  2019cites this paper
• Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ophraella communa in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis

  2019cites this paper