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Interdependencies in Conflict Dynamics: Analyzing Endogenous Patterns in Conflict Event Data Using Relational Event Models

L. Brandenberger

Published 2019 in Computers and the Social Sciences

ABSTRACT

Relational event models are a powerful tool to examine how conflicts arise or manifest through human interactions and how they evolve over time. Building on event history analysis, these models combine network dependencies with temporal dynamics and allow for the analysis of group formation patterns—such as alliance or coalition formation processes—influencing dynamics or social learning. The added information on both the timing (and order) of social interactions as well as the context in which social interactions take place (i.e., the broader network in which people or actors are embedded in) can give powerful new evidence to theorized social mechanisms. This chapter provides an overview of REMs and showcases two empirical studies to illustrate the approach. The first study examines political alliance-formation patterns among countries engaging in military actions in the Gulf region. The REM shows that countries engage in military actions with other countries by balancing their relations, i.e., by supporting allies of their allies and opposing enemies of their allies. The second study shows that party family homophily guides parliamentary veto decisions and provides empirical evidence of social influencing dynamics among European parliaments.

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