SCIENCE@home

The fall of oil Age:A scenario planning approach over the last peak oil of human history by 2040

N. Norouzi,M. Fani,Zahra Karami Ziarani

Published 2020 in Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering

ABSTRACT

Abstract In the late 50s a debate on the Oil depletion has been started which is continuing to the present day. Campbell largely updated Hubert's model with new reserve resources forecast and estimated that the world's oil production would peak around the 2004–2006 and then would decline over the years. Then was Campbell who proposed the term which was later widely used as the “The peak Oil” to define the global maximum of the Oil production Time series. In this paper a scenario planning based on the expert-choices (participated by the OPEC experts and policy makers) combined with the Hubert's forecast method (based on the Monte-Carlo non-linear forecast Regression) is done for the peak-oil forecasting and three high score scenarios have been derived. The “True me”, the “feigned sleep” and the death of the unity in which these scenarios are highly affected by the political environments of each. However, in one of the scenarios because of the tensions in the political environment the peak oil will not occur by 2040 but the other scenarios show that peak oil maybe is sooner than the world expects (the mid-2020s) and energy supply and demand markets must be ready for this phenomena.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2020

  • Venue

    Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering

  • Publication date

    2020-05-01

  • Fields of study

    Engineering, Economics, Environmental Science

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.1016/j.petrol.2019.106827
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

CITATION MAP

EXTRACTION MAP

CLAIMS

  • No claims are published for this paper.

CONCEPTS

  • No concepts are published for this paper.

REFERENCES

Showing 1-49 of 49 references · Page 1 of 1

CITED BY

Showing 1-87 of 87 citing papers · Page 1 of 1