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Reconstructing the natural hydrology of the San Francisco Bay–Delta watershed

P. Fox,P. Hutton,D. Howes,A. Draper,Lindsey Sears

Published 2015 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

ABSTRACT

We evaluated the impact of landscape changes on the amount of delta outflow reaching San Francisco Bay. The natural landscape was reconstructed and water balances were used to estimate the long-term annual average delta outflow that would have occurred under natural landscape conditions if the climate from 1922 to 2009 were to repeat itself. These outflows are referred to as natural delta outflows and are the first published estimate of natural delta outflow. These natu- ral delta outflows were then compared with current delta out- flows for the same climate and existing landscape, including its re-engineered system of reservoirs, canals, aqueducts, and pumping plants. This analysis shows that the long-term, annual average delta outflow under current conditions is consistent with out- flow under natural landscape conditions. The amount of wa- ter currently used by farms, cities, and others is about equal to the amount of water formerly used by native vegetation. Development of water resources in California's Central Val- ley transferred water formerly used by native vegetation to new beneficial uses without substantially reducing the long- term annual average supply to the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. Based on this finding, it is unlikely that observed de- clines in native freshwater aquatic species are the result of annual average delta outflow reductions.

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