Abstract. To test hypotheses about glacial dynamics, the Mid-Brunhes event, and the stage 11 paradox, we evaluate the ability of a statistical model to simulate climate during the previous ~800 000 years. Throughout this period, the model simulates the timing and magnitude of glacial cycles, including the saw-tooth pattern in which ice accumulates gradually and ablates rapidly, without nonlinearities or threshold effects. This suggests that nonlinearities and/or threshold effects do not play a critical role in glacial cycles. Furthermore, model accuracy throughout the previous ~800 000 years suggest that changes in glacial cycles associated with the Mid-Brunhes event, which occurs near the division between the out-of-sample period and the in-sample period, are not caused by changes in the dynamics of the climate system. Conversely, poor model performance during MIS stage 11 and Termination V is consistent with arguments that the stage 11 paradox represents a mismatch between orbital geometry and climate. Statistical orderings of simulation errors indicate that periods of reduced accuracy start with significant reductions in the model's ability to simulate carbon dioxide, non-sea-salt sodium, and non-sea-salt calcium. Their importance suggests that the stage 11 paradox is generated by changes in atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation that affect ocean ventilation of carbon dioxide.
Testing Hypotheses About Glacial Dynamics and the Stage 11 Paradox Using a Statistical Model of Paleo-Climate
Published 2020 in Climate of The Past Discussions
ABSTRACT
PUBLICATION RECORD
- Publication year
2020
- Venue
Climate of The Past Discussions
- Publication date
2020-04-01
- Fields of study
Geology, Environmental Science
- Identifiers
- External record
- Source metadata
Semantic Scholar
CITATION MAP
EXTRACTION MAP
CLAIMS
- No claims are published for this paper.
CONCEPTS
- No concepts are published for this paper.
REFERENCES
Showing 1-68 of 68 references · Page 1 of 1
CITED BY
Showing 1-2 of 2 citing papers · Page 1 of 1