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Decision Making When Things Are Only a Matter of Time

S. Ebert

Published 2020 in Operational Research

ABSTRACT

Suppose that “risk” does not concern “what” may happen but “when” something may happen. In “Decision making when things are only a matter of time,” Sebastian Ebert analyzes time risk preferences: that is, preferences toward the risk of something happening sooner or later. The author defines and characterizes “prudence” and “temperance” for discount functions in analogy to the corresponding concepts for utility functions. Prudent discounting and temperate discounting matter for time risk preferences and thus, decisions in which an important event is only a matter of time. For example, the disutility from climate change—which is only a matter of time—is underestimated when ignoring the uncertainty about when its undesired consequences come into effect.

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