Relationship between spring tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific and El Niño‐Southern oscillation

The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during spring (March–May) has a significant inverse correlation with concurrent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the period from 1979 to 2018. This relationship is different from the previously‐documented weak relationship between TC frequency and ENSO during the climatologically most active portion of the TC season. In general, TCs seldom occur in El Niño years during March–May, whereas they frequently form over the western part of the WNP, particularly to the southeast of the Philippines, in La Niña years. This difference can be largely explained by ENSO‐driven differences in the genesis potential index as derived from environmental variables. In La Niña years, the abnormally moist mid‐troposphere, which relates to the strengthened vertical transport of water vapour induced by the enhanced Walker Circulation, primarily favours TC development, while increased sea surface temperatures and positive low‐level relative vorticity anomalies appear to play a lesser role in impacting TC formation.

• Publication year

  2020

• Venue

  International Journal of Climatology

• Publication date

  2020-07-02

• Fields of study

  Geography, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1002/joc.6703
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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