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A Multivariate Frequency-Domain Approach to Long-Lead Climatic Forecasting*

B. Rajagopalan,M. Mann,Upmanu Lall

Published 1998 in Weather and forecasting

ABSTRACT

Guided by the increasing awareness and detectability of spatiotemporally organized climatic variability at interannual and longer timescales, the authors motivate the paradigm of a climate system that exhibits excitations of quasi-oscillatory eigenmodes with characteristic timescales and large-scale spatial patterns of coherence. It is assumed that any such modes are superposed on a spatially and temporally autocorrelated stochastic noise background. Under such a paradigm, a previously described (Mann and Park) multivariate frequency-domain approach is promoted as a particularly effective means of spatiotemporal signal identification and reconstruction, and an associated forecasting methodology is introduced. This combined signal detection/forecasting scheme exhibits significantly greater skill than conventional forecasting approaches in the context of a synthetic example consistent with the adopted paradigm. The example application demonstrates statistically significant skill at 5‐ 10-yr lead times. Applications to operational long-range climatic forecasting are motivated and discussed.

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