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Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

D. Kaufman,G. Shenk,Gopal Bhatt,Kevin W. Asplen,Olivia H. Devereux,Jessica R. Rigelman,J. Ellis,B. Hobbs,D. Bosch,G. Houtven,A. McGarity,L. Linker,W. P. Ball

Published 2021 in Environmental Modelling & Software

ABSTRACT

Abstract Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program's (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States' largest estuary. The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework's current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

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