Spatial variability in threshold temperatures of heat wave mortality: impact assessment on prevention plans

Abstract Spain’s current heat wave prevention plans are activated according to administrative areas. This study analyses the determination of threshold temperatures for triggering prevention-plan activation by reference to isoclimatic areas, and describes the public health benefits. We subdivided the study area – the Madrid Autonomous Region (MAR) – into three, distinct, isoclimatic areas: ‘North’, ‘Central’ and ‘South’, and grouped daily natural-cause mortality (ICD-10: A00-R99) in towns of over 10,000 inhabitants (2000–2009 period) accordingly. Using these three areas rather than the MAR as a whole would have resulted in a possible decrease in mortality of 73 persons (38–108) in the North area, and in aborting unnecessary activation of the plan 153 times in the Central area and 417 times in the South area. Our results indicate that extrapolating this methodology would bring benefits associated with a reduction in attributable mortality and improved effectiveness of public health interventions.

• Publication year

  2017

• Venue

  International Journal of Environmental Health Research

• Publication date

  2017-10-02

• Fields of study

  Geography, Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1080/09603123.2017.1379056PMID 28969426
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• Using isoclimatic areas instead of the regional average would have avoided unnecessary heat wave prevention plan activation 153 times in the Central area and 417 times in the South area.

  Confidence 0.95

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• Defining threshold temperatures by isoclimatic area rather than for the Madrid Autonomous Region as a whole would have prevented an estimated 73 deaths in the North area (38-108).

  Confidence 0.96

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review

• central area

  geographic area, subregion

  The central isoclimatic subdivision of the Madrid Autonomous Region used in the analysis.

  Aliases: Central

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• heat wave prevention plans

  public health intervention, policy

  Public health plans activated during hot conditions to reduce heat-related mortality risk.

  Aliases: prevention plans, the plan

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• isoclimatic areas

  geographic area, classification

  Subregional zones grouped by similar climate conditions for deriving separate heat-related mortality thresholds.

  Aliases: isoclimatic area

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• madrid autonomous region

  administrative region, geographic area

  The Spanish regional territory that serves as the broader study area for the analysis.

  Aliases: MAR

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• natural-cause mortality

  outcome, mortality measure

  Deaths from all natural causes, coded in the abstract with ICD-10 A00-R99.

  Aliases: daily natural-cause mortality

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• north area

  geographic area, subregion

  The northern isoclimatic subdivision of the Madrid Autonomous Region used in the analysis.

  Aliases: North

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• south area

  geographic area, subregion

  The southern isoclimatic subdivision of the Madrid Autonomous Region used in the analysis.

  Aliases: South

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review
• threshold temperatures

  measurement

  Temperature cutoffs used to trigger heat wave prevention-plan activation in this setting.

  Aliases: threshold temperature

  박진우 (dztg5apj7m) extractionB (s683577b42) reviewjihoonc (k5vuy3tzcm) review

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