Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?

We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations and future inflation. We find that the expectations of professional economists and of businesses have tended to provide more accurate predictions of future inflation than the expectations of households and of financial market participants. However, the forecasts coming from a relatively simple and popular benchmark inflation forecasting model have historically been roughly as accurate as the expectations of businesses and professional economists.

• Publication year

  2021

• Venue

  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Economic Commentary

• Publication date

  2021-10-18

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.26509/frbc-ec-202119
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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