Appraising standardized moisture anomaly index (SZI) in drought projection across China under CMIP6 forcing scenarios

Abstract Study region Seven climatic regions of China. Study focus This study compared and assessed the Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index (SZI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) over seven climatic regions of China based on simulations from General Circulation Models (GCM) participated in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under climate change. Then, SZI was calculated using downscaled and multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations for drought projection, and drought characteristics were determined based on SZI from 1985 to 2100. New hydrological insights for the region Results showed that SZI was more robust and performed better in identifying and projecting multi-scalar and multi-category drought, especially in comprehensive drought identification, in different climatic regions under global warming. The performance of scPDSI in identifying multi-category drought decreased with the increase of time scales beyond 12 months. The SZI series calculated with downscaled and MME simulations showed that most parts of China (arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid regions) were projected to become wetter over the 21st century, however, drought is expected to be more widespread in southern humid regions of China under a warmer climate in the future. The results provide a new choice for future drought projection and valuable information for regional drought mitigation under climate change.

• Publication year

  2021

• Venue

  Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

• Publication date

  2021-10-01

• Fields of study

  Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1016/J.EJRH.2021.100898
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Drought monitoring and evaluation using ESA CCI and GLDAS-Noah soil moisture datasets across China

  2021cited by this paper
• Spatiotemporal changes of drought characteristics and their dynamic drivers in Canada

  2020cited by this paper
• Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

  2020cited by this paper
• Development of a new integrated hydrological drought index (SRGI) and its application in the Heihe River Basin, China

  2020cited by this paper
• Monitoring the extreme drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2019 from GRACE-FO satellites

  2020cited by this paper
• Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?

  2020cited by this paper
• A Framework for Global Multicategory and Multiscalar Drought Characterization Accounting for Snow Processes

  2019cited by this paper
• Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs.

  2019cited by this paper
• Drylands climate response to transient and stabilized 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming targets

  2019cited by this paper
• Appraising regional multi-category and multi-scalar drought monitoring using standardized moisture anomaly index (SZI): A water-energy balance approach

  2019cited by this paper
• Assessment of CFSR, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2, NCEP-2 reanalysis data for drought analysis over China

  2019cited by this paper
• An intercomparison of multiple statistical downscaling methods for daily precipitation and temperature over China: present climate evaluations

  2019cited by this paper
• A water-energy balance approach for multi-category drought assessment across globally diverse hydrological basins

  2019cited by this paper
• Soil Moisture Stress as a Major Driver of Carbon Cycle Uncertainty

  2018cited by this paper
• Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO2

  2018cited by this paper
• Drought evolution, severity and trends in mainland China over 1961-2013.

  2018cited by this paper
• Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966-2015.

  2018cited by this paper
• Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

  2018cited by this paper
• Climate change enhances the severity and variability of drought in the Pearl River Basin in South China in the 21st century

  2018cited by this paper
• Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections

  2018cited by this paper
• Bias Correction of Historical and Future Simulations of Precipitation and Temperature for China from CMIP5 Models

  2018cited by this paper
• Disconnection Between Trends of Atmospheric Drying and Continental Runoff

  2018cited by this paper
• Climate Change and Drought: a Precipitation and Evaporation Perspective

  2018cited by this paper
• Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century

  2017cited by this paper
• Lags in hydrologic recovery following an extreme drought: Assessing the roles of climate and catchment characteristics

  2017cited by this paper
• Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

  2017cited by this paper
• Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2

  2017cited by this paper
• An Overview of Drought Monitoring and Prediction Systems at Regional and Global Scales

  2017cited by this paper
• The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors

  2017cited by this paper
• Drylands face potential threat under 2[thinsp][deg]C global warming target

  2017cited by this paper
• Meteorological conditions associated with the onset of flash drought in the Eastern United States

  2017cited by this paper
• A multiscalar Palmer drought severity index

  2017cited by this paper
• Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961–2013

  2017cited by this paper
• A new drought index that considers the joint effects of climate and land surface change

  2017cited by this paper
• Impact of climate change and El Niño episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa

  2017cited by this paper
• Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

  2016cited by this paper
• Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying

  2016cited by this paper
• Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

  2016cited by this paper
• Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in Southern China

  2016cited by this paper
• From the Cover: Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

  2016cited by this paper
• A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators

  2015cited by this paper
• Integrating Entropy and Copula Theories for Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis

  2015cited by this paper
• Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

  2015cited by this paper
• Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

  2015cited by this paper
• Drought characterization from a multivariate perspective: A review

  2015cited by this paper
• Development and evaluation of a physically based multiscalar drought index: The Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index

  2015cited by this paper
• An analytical model for relating global terrestrial carbon assimilation with climate and surface conditions using a rate limitation framework

  2015cited by this paper
• The contribution of reduction in evaporative cooling to higher surface air temperatures during drought

  2014cited by this paper
• Global warming and 21st century drying

  2014cited by this paper
• A baseline probabilistic drought forecasting framework using standardized soil moisture index: application to the 2012 United States drought

  2014cited by this paper
• Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe

  2014cited by this paper
• Multivariate Standardized Drought Index: A parametric multi-index model

  2013cited by this paper
• Local and global factors controlling water‐energy balances within the Budyko framework

  2013cited by this paper
• Examining Rapid Onset Drought Development Using the Thermal Infrared–Based Evaporative Stress Index

  2013cited by this paper
• Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models

  2013cited by this paper
• Reproducibility of precipitation distribution over the tropical oceans in CMIP5 multi-climate models compared to CMIP3

  2012cited by this paper
• Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

  2012cited by this paper
• Extreme drought event of 2009/2010 over southwestern China

  2012cited by this paper
• Analyses of the Causes of Severe Drought Occurring in Southwest China from the Fall of 2009 to the Spring of 2010

  2012cited by this paper
• Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008

  2011cited by this paper
• Spatial Variation and Trends in PDSI and SPI Indices and Their Relation to Streamflow in 10 Large Regions of China

  2010cited by this paper
• A review of drought concepts

  2010cited by this paper
• A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

  2009cited by this paper
• Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited

  2009cited by this paper
• Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought

  2008cited by this paper
• Sunglint observations over land from ground and airborne L‐band radiometer data

  2008cited by this paper
• Development of a 50-Year High-Resolution Global Dataset of Meteorological Forcings for Land Surface Modeling

  2006cited by this paper
• Interpreting the complementary relationship in non‐humid environments based on the Budyko and Penman hypotheses

  2006cited by this paper
• Assessing Snow Albedo Feedback in Simulated Climate Change

  2006cited by this paper
• Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

  2004cited by this paper
• Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram

  2001cited by this paper
• Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements

  1998cited by this paper
• THE RELATIONSHIP OF DROUGHT FREQUENCY AND DURATION TO TIME SCALES

  1993cited by this paper

• Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Under Future Climate Scenarios in the Siak Watershed, Indonesia

  2026cites this paper
• Assessing future drought evolution and driving mechanisms in the Weigan River Basin under CMIP6 climate scenarios

  2026cites this paper
• Modeling the evolution of water-environment-economy coupling system with the impacts of inter-basin water transfer project

  2025cites this paper
• Nonstationary Spatiotemporal Projection of Drought Across Seven Climate Regions of China in the 21st Century Based on a Novel Drought Index

  2025cites this paper
• A new weighted framework for regional drought risk assessment and geographic explainable insights based on GeoShapley

  2025cites this paper
• Monitoring rainfall and drought trends using remote sensing-derived climate and vegetation indices in semi-arid eco-zone, Nigeria

  2025cites this paper
• Forecasting maize yield from growth parameters using machine learning in a biochar-inorganic fertilizer amended soil under drip irrigation

  2025cites this paper
• Increased risks of spatially concurrent droughts in the yellow river basin under climate warming

  2025cites this paper
• Future drought patterns in Southwest China: A CMIP6-based analysis using multiple drought indices

  2025cites this paper
• Assessing the Drought Vulnerability of Rice in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from Physical and Social Dimensions

  2025cites this paper
• Unraveling Drought Patterns and Abrupt Changes in the Western Alps: A Dual Index Approach

  2025cites this paper
• Spatiotemporal response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought in the upper Hanjiang River Basin from three-dimensional perspective

  2025cites this paper
• Evaluating different drought products for assessing drought and implications on agriculture in Nepal

  2025cites this paper
• Assessment of drought hazard change in China under 2°C, 3°C and 4°C temperature rise scenarios based on CMIP6 models

  2025influential citation
• Development and evaluation of the modified and standardized rainfall anomaly indices for extreme variability analysis.

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating Deep Learning and Copula Models for Flood–Drought Compound Analysis in Iran

  2025cites this paper
• More evident trend of main drought seasons transition from spring-winter to summer-autumn in future China with higher emission scenarios

  2024cites this paper
• Assessment of the impact of climate change on streamflow of Ganjiang River catchment via LSTM-based models

  2024cites this paper
• Projections of meteorological drought severity-duration variations based on CMIP6

  2024cites this paper
• Analysis of SPI index trend variations in the United Kingdom - A cluster-based and bayesian ensemble algorithms approach

  2024cites this paper
• Understanding the rapid increase in drought stress and its connections with climate desertification since the early 1990s over the Brazilian semi-arid region

  2024cites this paper
• Global future potential evapotranspiration signal using Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves-Samani method by latitudes based on CMIP6

  2024cites this paper
• Drought stress and its characteristics in China from 2001 to 2020 considering vegetation response and drought creep effect

  2024cites this paper
• Projections and uncertainty analysis of socioeconomic exposure to compound dry and hot events under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels across China

  2024cites this paper
• Monitoring anomalies on large-scale energy and water balance components by coupling remote sensing parameters and gridded weather data

  2024influential citation
• Estimating Rainfall Anomalies with IMERG Satellite Data: Access via the IPE Web Application

  2024cites this paper
• Simulation and Future Projections of Reference Evapotranspiration in Egypt

  2024cites this paper
• Estimating propagation probability from meteorological to ecological droughts using a hybrid machine learning copula method

  2023cites this paper
• Challenges of typical inter-basin water transfer projects in China: Anticipated impacts of climate change on streamflow and hydrological drought under CMIP6

  2023cites this paper
• Increased flood susceptibility in the Tibetan Plateau with climate and land use changes

  2023cites this paper
• Quantitative Analysis of the Uncertainty of Drought Process Simulation Based on Atmospheric–Hydrological Coupling in Different Climate Zones

  2023cites this paper
• Reconstructing a new terrestrial water storage deficit index to detect and quantify drought in the Yangtze River Basin

  2023cites this paper
• Changes in aridity and its impact on agricultural lands in East Asia for 1.5 and 2.0 °C temperature rise scenarios

  2023cites this paper
• Future drought risks in the Yellow River Basin and suggestions for targeted response

  2023cites this paper
• The increasing risk of future simultaneous droughts over the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP6 models

  2023cites this paper
• Development of a novel daily-scale compound dry and hot index and its application across seven climatic regions of China

  2023cites this paper
• Spatio-temporal analysis of drought in Southern Italy: a combined clustering-forecasting approach based on SPEI index and artificial intelligence algorithms

  2023cites this paper
• Future projection of seasonal drought characteristics using CMIP6 in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

  2022cites this paper
• Development of a novel daily-scale compound dry and hot index and its application across non-arid regions of China

  2022cites this paper
• Spatiotemporal variability assessment and accuracy evaluation of Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Malaysia

  2022cites this paper
• Changes in reliability–resilience–vulnerability-based watershed health under climate change scenarios in the Efin Watershed, Iran

  2022cites this paper
• Projections of the characteristics and probability of spatially concurrent hydrological drought in a cascade reservoirs area under CMIP6

  2022cites this paper
• Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change

  2021cites this paper
• Twenty-First Century Drought Analysis Across China using CMIP6 Under Climate Change

  2021cites this paper