SCIENCE@home

Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific

Jun Ying,M. Collins,W. Cai,A. Timmermann,Ping Huang,Dake Chen,Karl Stein

Published 2021 in Nature Climate Change

ABSTRACT

Future changes in the mean climate of the tropical Pacific and characteristics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are established as being likely. Determining the time of emergence of climate change signals from the natural variability is critical for mitigation strategies and adaptation planning. Here, using a multimodel ensemble, we find that the annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) signal has already emerged across much of the tropical Pacific, appearing last in the east. The signal of a wetter annual-mean rainfall in the east is expected to emerge by mid-century, with some sensitivity to emission scenario. However, the ENSO-related rainfall variability signal is projected to emerge by about 2040 regardless of emission scenario, about 30 years earlier than ENSO-related SST variability signal at about 2070. Our results are instructive for the detection of climate change signals and reinforce the rapidly emerging risks of ENSO-induced climate extremes regardless of mitigation actions. Determining the emergent climate change signals in the tropical Pacific—mean state and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—is crucial for climate action. Model simulations show that the mean sea surface temperature signal is already detectable, and that mean rainfall and ENSO-related signals could emerge around 2040.

PUBLICATION RECORD

CITATION MAP

EXTRACTION MAP

CLAIMS

  • No claims are published for this paper.

CONCEPTS

  • No concepts are published for this paper.

REFERENCES

Showing 1-63 of 63 references · Page 1 of 1

CITED BY

Showing 1-60 of 60 citing papers · Page 1 of 1