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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

A. Mandal,G. Nykiel,T. Strzyżewski,A. Kochanski,W. Wrońska,M. Gruszczyńska,Mariusz Figurski

Published 2021 in International journal of wildland fire

ABSTRACT

Due to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The FireWeather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Forecasts are made with 24and 48-h lead times. The purpose of this work is to present the validation of the implemented system. First, the results of the WRF model were validated using in situ observations from ,70 synoptic stations. Second, we used the correlation method and Eastaugh’s percentile analysis to assess the quality of the FWI index. The data covered the 2019 fire season and were analysed for the whole forest area in Poland. Based on the presented results, it can be concluded that the FWI index (calculated based on the WRF model) has a very high predictive ability of fire risk. However, the results vary by region, distance from human habitats, and size of fire.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2021

  • Venue

    International journal of wildland fire

  • Publication date

    Unknown publication date

  • Fields of study

    Not labeled

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.1071/wf21106
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

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