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Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages

M. R. Moura,F. A. O. D. Nascimento,L. Paolucci,D. P. Silva,Bráulio A. Santos

Published 2022 in bioRxiv

ABSTRACT

Climate emergency is a significant threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but species will not be equally affected. In summing up different species’ responses at the local scale, we can assess changes in the species quantity and composition of biotic assemblages. Here we investigated climate change driven variation in species richness and spatial beta-diversity using modelled distributions of 2,841 plant species in Caatinga, the largest dry forest region of South America. More than 99% of plant assemblages were projected to lose species by 2060, with biotic homogenisation ─ the decrease in spatial beta-diversity forecasted in 40% of the Caatinga. Replacement of narrow-range woody species by wide-range non-woody ones should impact at least 85% of Caatinga plant assemblages. The future increase in aridity will change patterns of woodiness and ecological generalism of tropical dry forest plant assemblages, and ultimately erode ecosystem services linked to biomass productivity and carbon storage.

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