Atlantic Zonal Mode-Monsoon Teleconnection in a Warming Scenario

The dominant interannual SST variability in the eastern equatorial 7 Atlantic referred to as the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM), which peaks in boreal 8 summer impacts global weather patterns. The cold (warm) phase of this ocean- 9 atmospheric coupled phenomenon enhances (weakens) the intensity of the Indian 10 summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Observational studies show a strengthening 11 relationship between AZM and ISMR in recent decades, providing a predictive 12 signal for the ISMR. However, a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 13 Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations in the highest emission scenario (SSP58.5) 14 show a weakening relationship between ISMR and AZM in the future (2050-2099). 15 The strengthening of atmospheric thermal stability over the tropical Atlantic in the 16 warming scenario weakens the associated convection over the eastern equatorial 17 Atlantic in response to the warm phase of AZM. This leads to weakening velocity 18 potential response over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in a weak AZM-ISMR 19 relationship. There is no convincing evidence to indicate that either the tropical 20 Atlantic SST bias or the AZM-ISMR teleconnection bias plays a crucial role in the 21 potential weakening of this relationship. These results imply that ISMR prediction 22 will become more challenging in a warming scenario as one of the major external 23 boundary forces that influence monsoon weakens. 24 seasonal mean rainfall is carried out. The multimodel mean of 12 ’good’ models shows neg- ative correlation values over central India and western Ghats as in observations

• Publication year

  2021

• Venue

  Unknown venue

• Publication date

  2021-03-01

• Fields of study

  Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.21203/RS.3.RS-169135/V1
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections

  2020cited by this paper
• The Indian Ocean Dipole

  2018cited by this paper
• ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon in observations and models

  2017cited by this paper
• Influence of tropical South Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures on the Indian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

  2017cited by this paper
• Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming

  2016cited by this paper
• A Global Perspective

  2015cited by this paper
• Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

  2015cited by this paper
• Influence of extratropical sea‐surface temperature on the Indian summer monsoon: an unexplored source of seasonal predictability

  2015cited by this paper
• Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niño/Southern Oscillation events

  2013cited by this paper
• Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation

  2012cited by this paper
• On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model

  2011cited by this paper
• Interaction between the Atlantic meridional and Niño modes

  2010influential reference
• Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades?

  2009cited by this paper
• Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in a Conceptual Framework

  2009influential reference
• On the origin of equatorial Atlantic biases in coupled general circulation models

  2008influential reference
• Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds

  2008cited by this paper
• Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation

  2006cited by this paper
• Intraseasonal Oscillations and Interannual Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

  2001cited by this paper
• Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO

  2001cited by this paper
• Warm Events in the Tropical Atlantic

  1994influential reference
• The connection.

  1973cited by this paper

• No citing papers are available for this paper.