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Why Do Some Post-Tropical Cyclones Impact Europe?

Elliott M. Sainsbury,R. Schiemann,K. Hodges,A. Baker,L. Shaffrey,Kieran Bhatia

Published 2022 in Monthly Weather Review

ABSTRACT

Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring high winds and extreme precipitation to Europe. Although the structure and intensity of observed Europe-impacting PTCs has been investigated in previous studies, a quantitative understanding of the factors important for PTCs to reach Europe has not been established. By tracking and identifying the full life cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the ERA5 reanalysis, we investigate why some PTCs impact Europe and why others do not, using a composite analysis. We show that PTCs that impact Europe are typically ∼4–6 m s−1 stronger at their lifetime maximum intensity and throughout the extratropical transition process. They are also twice as likely to reintensify in the midlatitudes. During ET, the Europe-impacting PTCs interact more strongly with an upstream upper-level trough in a significantly more baroclinic environment. The Europe-impacting PTCs are steered on a more poleward trajectory across a midlatitude jet streak. It is during the crossing of the jet that these cyclones often undergo their reintensification. Using contingency table analysis, TC lifetime maximum intensity, and whether post-ET reintensification occurs are shown to be significantly associated with the odds that a PTC reaches Europe. This supports our composite analysis and further indicates that TC intensity and reintensification both modulate the likelihood that a PTC will impact Europe. Some post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) reach Europe, often associated with extreme precipitation and high winds. It is currently unclear what factors allow this to occur. In this study, we track cyclones in two reanalyses using a feature tracking scheme and identify the PTCs by matching (in space and time) reanalysis tracks with observed tracks. Using a composite analysis, we show that 1) tropical cyclones (TCs) that are more intense, and 2) TCs that reintensify after extratropical transition, are more likely to reach Europe. TCs that reintensify interact strongly with an upper-level upstream trough and cross a midlatitude jet streak. Reintensification occurs as the cyclones cross this jet streak.

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