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Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

René M. van Westen,H. Dijkstra,N. Bloemendaal

Published 2023 in Climate Dynamics

ABSTRACT

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases ( $$-45\%$$ - 45 % ) in the North Atlantic but increases ( $$+15\%$$ + 15 % ) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

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