Unpacking the ‘black box’: Improving ecological interpretation of regression‐based models

Many tree species distribution models use black‐box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximizing predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species.

• Publication year

  2023

• Venue

  Diversity and Distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity

• Publication date

  2023-06-06

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1111/ddi.13707
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America

  2022cited by this paper
• Over half of western United States' most abundant tree species in decline

  2021cited by this paper
• Interpretable vs. noninterpretable machine learning models for data-driven hydro-climatological process modeling

  2021cited by this paper
• A translucent box: interpretable machine learning in ecology

  2020cited by this paper
• Combining US and Canadian forest inventories to assess habitat suitability and migration potential of 25 tree species under climate change

  2020cited by this paper
• Explainable AI: A Review of Machine Learning Interpretability Methods

  2020cited by this paper
• SIRUS: Stable and Interpretable RUle Set for classification

  2020cited by this paper
• Explainable artificial intelligence enhances the ecological interpretability of black‐box species distribution models

  2020cited by this paper
• Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species

  2020cited by this paper
• How Interpretable and Trustworthy are GAMs?

  2020cited by this paper
• Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US: Results of DISTRIB-II Modeling

  2019cited by this paper
• Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

  2019cited by this paper
• Utilizing the density of inventory samples to define a hybrid lattice for species distribution models: DISTRIB‐II for 135 eastern U.S. trees

  2019cited by this paper
• Topography and soils-based mapping reveals fine-scale compositional shifts over two centuries within a central Appalachian landscape

  2019cited by this paper
• Machine Learning for Macroscale Ecological Niche Modeling - a Multi-Model, Multi-Response Ensemble Technique for Tree Species Management Under Climate Change

  2018cited by this paper
• Stop explaining black box machine learning models for high stakes decisions and use interpretable models instead

  2018cited by this paper
• Assessing species climatic requirements beyond the realized niche: some lessons mainly from tree species distribution modelling

  2017cited by this paper
• Points of Significance: Classification and regression trees

  2017cited by this paper
• Extinction risk of North American seed plants elevated by climate and land‐use change

  2017cited by this paper
• An introduction to niche construction theory

  2016cited by this paper
• Estimating potential range and hence climatic adaptability in selected tree species

  2016cited by this paper
• Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

  2016cited by this paper
• The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

  2016cited by this paper
• Interpolation of Irregularly and Regularly Spaced Data

  2015cited by this paper
• Climate remains an important driver of post‐European vegetation change in the eastern United States

  2015cited by this paper
• Glacial refugia and modern genetic diversity of 22 western North American tree species

  2015cited by this paper
• Macroscale intraspecific variation and environmental heterogeneity: analysis of cold and warm zone abundance, mortality, and regeneration distributions of four eastern US tree species

  2015cited by this paper
• caret: Classification and Regression Training

  2015cited by this paper
• R: A language and environment for statistical computing.

  2014influential reference
• Soil water availability effects on the distribution of 20 tree species in western North America

  2014cited by this paper
• Intensified warming of the Arctic: Causes and impacts on middle latitudes

  2014cited by this paper
• Tracking suitable habitat for tree populations under climate change in western North America

  2013cited by this paper
• Applied Predictive Modeling

  2013cited by this paper
• Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change.

  2013cited by this paper
• Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors

  2011cited by this paper
• Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010)

  2011cited by this paper
• Climate is a stronger driver of tree and forest growth rates than soil and disturbance

  2011cited by this paper
• Building Predictive Models in R Using the caret Package

  2008cited by this paper
• PREDICTIVE LEARNING VIA RULE ENSEMBLES

  2008cited by this paper
• Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

  2008cited by this paper
• Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of North American Trees

  2007cited by this paper
• Decision Tree Instability and Active Learning

  2007cited by this paper
• Newer Classification and Regression Tree Techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for Ecological Prediction

  2006cited by this paper
• LATE‐QUATERNARY VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN NORTH AMERICA: SCALING FROM TAXA TO BIOMES

  2004cited by this paper
• The North America tapestry of time and terrain

  2003cited by this paper
• Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

  2002cited by this paper
• Vegetation response to the ∼14.7 and ∼11.5 ka cal. BP climate transitions: is vegetation lagging climate?

  2001cited by this paper
• Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic History of North American Vegetation: North of Mexico

  1999cited by this paper
• PREDICTING ABUNDANCE OF 80 TREE SPECIES FOLLOWING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

  1998cited by this paper
• Bagging Predictors

  1996cited by this paper
• Some implications of paleoecology for contemporary ecology

  1991cited by this paper
• Mapping regions climatically suitable for particular tree species at the global scale

  1990cited by this paper
• Lags in vegetation response to greenhouse warming

  1989cited by this paper
• Classification trees: a new discrimination tool

  1987cited by this paper
• A method of univariate interpolation that has the accuracy of a third-degree polynomial

  1986cited by this paper
• Atlas of United States trees.

  1971cited by this paper

• Habitat and Migration Dynamics of North American Tree Species Under Climate Change

  2025cites this paper
• Integrating disturbance to improve our understanding of range-wide patterns in tree species abundance and demography

  2025cites this paper
• Bayesian integrated species distribution models for hierarchical resource selection by a soaring bird

  2024cites this paper