Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

We identify a seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones that is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn^ 1 , 2 , have destructive impacts on life and property^ 3 – 5 , making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer^ 6 , 7 , thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.

• Publication year

  2023

• Venue

  Nature

• Publication date

  2023-09-27

• Fields of study

  Medicine, Environmental Science

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0PMID 37758952PMCID 10620083
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar, PubMed

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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