Marine heatwaves and cold spells in the Brazil Overshoot show distinct sea surface temperature patterns depending on the forcing

The Brazil Current Overshoot regions feature the strongest sea surface temperature variations over the global ocean but forecast skill for these extreme variations is limited. Here we investigate the drivers of marine heatwaves and cold spells in this region and find that ocean flows and sea surface heat fluxes are the primary drivers. We also find that sea surface temperature extremes driven by air-sea heat fluxes produce consistent changes in sea surface temperature and related atmospheric variables over a wide horizontal area, whereas ocean flow-driven sea surface temperature extremes exhibit low consistency in air variables and limited consistency in the spatial extent of sea variables across most sea surface temperature extreme events. These differing air-sea characteristics associated with extremes driven by different drivers offer potential avenues for improving prediction skills and advancing the understanding of three-dimensional air-sea impacts associated with extreme events. Marine heat waves in the Brazil Malvinas Confluence region are associated with high eddy kinetic energy, primarily linked to mesoscale flows, whereas marine cool spells are associated with low eddy kinetic energy and both mesoscale and mean current regimes, according to an analysis of observation-based data.

• Publication year

  2024

• Venue

  Communications Earth & Environment

• Publication date

  2024-02-26

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1038/s43247-024-01258-1
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

• Interactions between cold cyclonic eddies and a western boundary current modulate marine heatwaves

  2023cited by this paper
• Atmospheric Drivers of Tasman Sea Marine Heatwaves

  2023influential reference
• Compound marine heatwaves and low sea surface salinity extremes over the tropical Pacific Ocean

  2023cited by this paper
• Oceanic mesoscale eddies as crucial drivers of global marine heatwaves

  2023cited by this paper
• Brazil-Malvinas Confluence in the South-West Atlantic Ocean: phytoplankton species, life forms and trophic mode

  2022cited by this paper
• Tropicalization of demersal megafauna in the western South Atlantic since 2013

  2022cited by this paper
• Drivers of ocean warming in the western boundary currents of the Southern Hemisphere

  2022cited by this paper
• The southwestern Atlantic Ocean mesoscale eddies: A review of their role in the air-sea interaction processes

  2022cited by this paper
• Local Drivers of Extreme Upper Ocean Marine Heatwaves Assessed Using a Global Ocean Circulation Model

  2022cited by this paper
• Local Drivers of Marine Heatwaves: A Global Analysis With an Earth System Model

  2022cited by this paper
• Shelf Water Export at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Evidenced From Combined in situ and Satellite Observations

  2022cited by this paper
• Topographically Trapped Waves around South America with periods between 40 and 130 days in a global ocean reanalysis

  2022cited by this paper
• The Río de la Plata plume dynamics over the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf and its link with the large scale atmospheric variability on interannual timescales

  2021cited by this paper
• A view of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence, March 2015

  2021cited by this paper
• Marine cold-spells

  2021cited by this paper
• Oceanic Circulation Drives the Deepest and Longest Marine Heatwaves in the East Australian Current System

  2021influential reference
• Observed strong subsurface marine heatwaves in the tropical western Pacific Ocean

  2021cited by this paper
• The Copernicus Global 1/12° Oceanic and Sea Ice GLORYS12 Reanalysis

  2021cited by this paper
• Oceanic eddy-induced modifications to air–sea heat and CO2 fluxes in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

  2021cited by this paper
• On the Errors of Estimating Oceanic Eddy Kinetic Energy

  2021cited by this paper
• Atmospheric wavenumber-4 driven South Pacific marine heat waves and marine cool spells

  2021cited by this paper
• Global changes in oceanic mesoscale currents over the satellite altimetry record

  2020influential reference
• The ERA5 global reanalysis

  2020cited by this paper
• Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model

  2020cited by this paper
• Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

  2019cited by this paper
• The Role of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change in the 2017/18 Tasman Sea Marine Heatwave

  2019cited by this paper
• A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers

  2019cited by this paper
• Common cause for severe droughts in South America and marine heatwaves in the South Atlantic

  2019influential reference
• Salt Sinking in the Upper South Pacific Subtropical Gyre From 2004 to 2016

  2019cited by this paper
• The Malvinas Current at the Confluence With the Brazil Current: Inferences From 25 Years of Mercator Ocean Reanalysis

  2019cited by this paper
• The Open-Ocean Side of the Malvinas Current in Argo Floats and 24 Years of Mercator Ocean High-Resolution (1/12) Physical Reanalysis

  2018cited by this paper
• Emerging risks from marine heat waves

  2018cited by this paper
• The 2017 Record Marine Heatwave in the Southwestern Atlantic Shelf

  2018cited by this paper
• South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre Late Twentieth Century Changes

  2018cited by this paper
• Air-sea heat fluxes associated to mesoscale eddies in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean and their dependence on different regional conditions

  2017cited by this paper
• Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on South America in Austral Summer

  2017cited by this paper
• The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

  2017cited by this paper
• A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

  2016cited by this paper
• Satellite Observations of Mesoscale Eddy-Induced Ekman Pumping

  2015cited by this paper
• Dispersal, eddies, and the diversity of marine phytoplankton

  2013cited by this paper
• Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents

  2012cited by this paper
• The observed signature of mesoscale eddies in sea surface temperature and the associated heat transport

  2012cited by this paper
• Dynamics of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence: Energy Conversions

  2011cited by this paper
• Global observations of nonlinear mesoscale eddies

  2011cited by this paper
• Competing interests

  2010cited by this paper
• Patterns of Diversity in Marine Phytoplankton

  2010cited by this paper
• Circulation and water mass modification in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

  2010cited by this paper
• Global observations of large oceanic eddies

  2007cited by this paper
• Brazil Malvinas Frontal System as seen from 9 years of advanced very high resolution radiometer data

  2004influential reference
• Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology

  2004cited by this paper

• Eddy-induced modulation of marine heatwaves and cold spells in a tropical region: a case study in the natuna sea area

  2025cites this paper
• Influence of mesoscale eddies on marine cold spells and heatwaves in Arafura Sea

  2025cites this paper
• Enhanced air-sea heat flux during cold air events: Observations and mechanism analysis

  2025cites this paper
• A deep learning model for ocean surface latent heat flux based on transformer and data assimilation

  2025cites this paper
• Extreme temperature events reshuffle the ecological landscape of the Southern Ocean

  2025cites this paper
• Characteristics and drivers of marine heatwaves in the western South Atlantic

  2024cites this paper