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Uncertainty of climate models and policy implications: a European perspective

Alfred Greiner

Published 2024 in List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik

ABSTRACT

In this paper we show that both climate models and economic models studying the effects of climate change are characterized by high uncertainty. Hence, far reaching policy implications such as the net zero goal lack a definite scientific foundation. Nevertheless, it cannot be excluded that the continued global warming will go along with high damages in the future. Therefore, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions could be justified due to the precautionary motif. However, there are strong signals from non-European economic regions that they definitely put a higher weight on economic growth rather than on greenhouse gas mitigation. The reduction of greenhouse gases in the European Union cause tremendous costs without influencing the climate on earth. Further, these investments do not raise the aggregate stock of productive capital nor do they lead to factor augmenting technical progress. Therefore, the net zero goal of the Green Deal of the European Union is to be seen sceptical.

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