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Freddy: breaking record for tropical cyclone precipitation?

E. Scoccimarro,P. Lanteri,L. Cavicchia

Published 2024 in Environmental Research Letters

ABSTRACT

Depending on the location on the Earth, the amount of precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can reach 20% of the total yearly precipitation over land and up to 40% over some ocean regions. TC induced freshwater flooding has been suggested to be the largest threat to human lives due to TCs. Therefore, a reliable quantification of the precipitation amount associated with each past TC is important for a better definition of the TC fingerprint on the climate. The temporal and horizontal resolution of state-of-the-art observational datasets and atmospheric reanalysis gives the possibility to quantify precipitation associated with TCs globally following the observed TC tracks. In this work we compare the TC-related precipitation in various observational and reanalysis datasets. A particular focus is given to the record-breaking TC Freddy (Southern Indian Ocean, 2023). Here we show that the time-varying bias in TC associated precipitation, due to the positive trend in assimilated observations, makes it difficult to assess long-term trend investigation based on reanalysis. To this aim we need to build on state-of-the-art general circulation models, free to evolve under historical radiative forcing.

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