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Current and Projected Future Spatial Distribution Patterns of Prunus microcarpa in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

R. Qadir,Nabaz R. Khwarahm

Published 2025 in Biology

ABSTRACT

Simple Summary Prunus microcarpa, the small-fruited cherry, a unique plant found only in the highlands of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, is at risk due to climate change. Protecting and restoring this species requires knowing where it currently grows and predicting how its habitat might shift in the future. This study aimed to map the plant’s current habitats and predict how climate change could influence its distribution. For this, we used field data, computer models, and environmental factors like elevation, rainfall patterns, and temperature to forecast future changes. Climate change is projected to shrink the plant’s habitat by 4.3–4.6% (about 2200–2350 km2), while new suitable areas might expand by only 2.0–2.5% (1015–1300 km2). Overall, the species is predicted to lose more habitat than it gains. These findings give conservationists and policymakers a clear plan to protect existing habitats, restore damaged areas, and prepare for climate impacts. Saving P. microcarpa helps preserve biodiversity, maintain healthy ecosystems, and support sustainable land use in Iraq’s highlands.

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