Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg? What about Ducks?: Granger Causality Using Philippine Poultry Data

The paper studies Philippine poultry data and revisits the chicken or the egg causality problem to include ducks data. Using quarterly Philippine poultry production time-series from the first quarter of 1980 to the last quarter of 2014, this research finds that chickens came from eggs, which is consistent with the earlier statistical results of Thurman and Fisher (1988), and genetics-based conclusions of Eriksson et al. (2008). However, no conclusive evidence was found using the Philippine duck and duck eggs data. The chicken or the egg conundrum demonstrates the power of Granger causality testing in answering questions of temporal ordering that has various causal applications using macroeconomic, financial, and agricultural time-series data.

• Publication year

  2025

• Venue

  Journal of Economic Statistics

• Publication date

  2025-03-15

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.58567/jes03010001
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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