Modelling the potential distribution of the invasive poplar lace bug Monosteira unicostata (Heteroptera: Tingidae) and its capacity to adapt to novel environments

Monosteira unicostata is an important pest of ornamental, stone, and seed fruit trees. It is native to Eurasia and was introduced in North America in 2012 and in South America in 2016. In South America, it has progressively increased its distribution, causing problems in the exportation of pears and apples that have resulted in significant economic losses. The climates of the areas recently invaded and of the regions where it is established in Eurasia were compared and ecological niche models were built to evaluate if it has gone through a niche shift while invading the Americas, to identify where there are suitable conditions for its establishment in South America in the present and in the future. Results indicate that M. unicostata has conserved its climatic niche while invading South America but has not been conservative while invading North America. Therefore, an increase in its distribution in North America could occur if it continues to broaden the range of environmental conditions it occupies. Evidence indicates that M. unicostata is not in equilibrium in South America, suggesting that it is likely to continue spreading its distribution to other countries. Therefore, it is advisable to implement monitoring programs to prevent its further expansion or ensure early detection. Maxent models indicate the environmental conditions allow the spread of M. unicostata to all Argentinean provinces and Chilean regions as well as to neighbouring countries. Future climatic scenarios forecast that the suitable areas will remain in similar locations but will expand in extent.

• Publication year

  2025

• Venue

  Agricultural and Forest Entomology

• Publication date

  2025-04-28

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1111/afe.12691
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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