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Monsoon rainfall trends and change point detection affecting kharif paddy ecosystems and gross primary productivity in Odisha

S. Behera,S. Sahu,Roshan Beuria,S. Ratna,Priyambada Pattanaik

Published 2025 in Scientific Reports

ABSTRACT

This study uses data from 1901 to 2023 to investigate the long-term spatiotemporal variations and trends in monsoon rainfall. It also looks at how these changes may affect Kharif Paddy production in the state’s agro-climatic zones from 2000 to 2022. The Pettitt test was used to identify sudden alterations in rainfall patterns, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to assess rainfall trends. The findings show that most districts in Odisha have no significant change in monsoon rainfall, indicating a generally consistent pattern over the past 123 years. Only Sundergarh in the North-Western Plateau Zone showed a significant negative trend (-2.51), highlighting potential localized vulnerabilities. Change detection analysis shows the probable change years vary by districts (under agro-climatic zones) ranging from 1919 to 2009, whereas inter-seasonal rainfall variability was recorded to increase after 1980. The relationship between GPP and rainfall revealed non-linear characterises. Meanwhile, the seasonal trend from 2000 to 2022 showed a favourable increase in Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), averaging 10.88 gC/m2 per year. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the GPP of forested areas in a region or district is more responsive to rainfall fluctuations than cropped areas within Odisha’s agro-climatic zones. Additionally, threshold analysis was conducted to identify the optimal range of monsoon rainfall that maximizes GPP for the studied districts across different agro-climatic zones. Understanding long-term rainfall variability is crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural productivity, particularly in monsoon-dependent regions like Odisha, where shifting precipitation patterns can significantly affect Kharif paddy production.

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