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Changes in the Distribution Range of the Genus Cardiocrinum in China Under Climate Change and Human Activities

Yuxin Zhang,Shujian Zhang,Haiyan Xiao,Heng Li,Da Liao,Yuxi Xue,Xinyi Huang,Qitao Su,Yi'an Xiao

Published 2025 in Biology

ABSTRACT

Simple Summary The genus Cardiocrinum comprises three recognized species, with their native distributions primarily concentrated in eastern and southwestern China’s forest ecosystems. In this study, the Maxent model was used to study the distribution and suitable area change in Cardiocrinum under climate change. The study findings showed that precipitation, temperature, and human activities significantly impacted the Cardiocrinum distribution. In addition to the relative reduction in the suitable habitat area of Cardiocrinum giganteum var. yunnanense, the suitable habitat area of Cardiocrinum cathayanum and Cardiocrinum giganteum will increase significantly and in the 2081–2100 SSP585 climate, and the area ideal for Cardiocrinum cathayanum habitat will increase greatly. Compared with the current period, this indicates that Cardiocrinum will undergo significant range shifts, with suitable habitats migrating toward higher altitude in the future. The niche consistency test of Cardiocrinum showed that there was niche differentiation between Cardiocrinum cathayanum and the other two, and there was no niche differentiation between Cardiocrinum giganteum and Cardiocrinum giganteum var. yunnanense.

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