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Forest carbon sink potential in the contiguous United States: insights from a novel growth model

Yuan Cao,Yinglin Tian,Di Xie,Shutong Liu,Guangqian Wang,Deyu Zhong

Published 2025 in Environmental Research Letters

ABSTRACT

Growth models are essential tools for predicting forest carbon sinks, yet existing models are often developed from limited perspectives and rarely account for the impacts of climate change on forest distribution. This study first introduces novel growth models grounded in the concept of accumulation phenomena, providing a new perspective while achieving a balanced integration of model accuracy and complexity. Second, by combining MaxEnt model with the growth model, we project the future dynamics of forest carbon in the Contiguous United States (CONUS), considering forest aging, climate-induced forest loss and shifts in forest compositions. Our findings reveal a consistent upward trend in total aboveground biomass (AGB), but the potential increase is limited, with AGB projected to rise by only 11.6% to 14.0% by 2080 compared to 2020. The characteristics and dominant limits of AGB potential vary across different regions of the CONUS. For instance, the West region exhibits the highest resilience to climate change, with AGB potential increasing by 37.4% to 38.3% in 2080 compared to 2020. However, the AGB potential is approaching saturation due to the aging forest structure. The Midwest region demonstrates heightened vulnerability to climate change, with AGB projected to decline nearly 22%–25% by 2080 compared to 2020. This projected decline is primarily due to the Midwest region undergoing the most severe plot loss and shifts in forest composition among all regions, with a changed plot rate of 40.7% to 47.3% in 2080. This study provides estimates of CONUS forest carbon storage potential, offering insights for the development of nature-based climate solutions.

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