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Recent and Future Climate Extremes in the Northeastern Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Under Anthropogenic Forcing

Shuangjuan Wang,Feng Wang,Bao Yang,C. Qin,Matthew P. Dannenberg

Published 2025 in Geophysical Research Letters

ABSTRACT

The northeastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau experienced a persistently wet regime since the 1960s. However, a severe drought occurred in the summer of 2023, pointing to the critical need to assess recent and future precipitation changes in this climate hotspot. Leveraging a newly developed millennial tree‐ring reconstruction with climate simulations, we show that both the recent humidification and precipitation deficit are exceptional, and the wet‐to‐dry transition is unprecedented over the past millennium. Despite model discrepancies and uncertainties, a subset of climate model simulations reproduced the multidecadal precipitation variability. Natural variability dominated the pre‐industrial precipitation patterns, while anthropogenic greenhouse gases are responsible for the recent humidification. Using a correlation‐based data‐model comparison, the region is projected to receive higher precipitation than its last‐millennium baseline through 2100, potentially exceeding the full‐ensemble estimates of CMIP6 projections. However, low‐precipitation summers similar to 2023 remain possible and, combined with future warming, could significantly impact regional ecosystems and socio‐economic systems.

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