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A New Machine Learning Algorithm to Simulate the Outlet Flow in a Reservoir, Based on a Water Balance Model

Marco Antonio Cordero Mancilla,W. Moncada,Vinie Lee Silva Alvarado

Published 2025 in Limnological Review

ABSTRACT

Predicting water losses and final storage in reservoirs has become increasingly relevant in the efficient control and optimization of water provided to agriculture, livestock, industry, and domestic consumption, aiming to mitigate the risks associated with flash floods and water crises. This research aims to develop a new Machine Learning (ML) algorithm based on a water balance model to simulate the outflow in the Cuchoquesera reservoir in the Ayacucho region. The method uses TensorFlow (TF), a powerful interface for graphing and time series forecasting, for data analysis of hydrometeorological parameters (HMP), inflow (QE_obs), and outflow (QS_obs) of the reservoir. The ML water balance model is fed, trained, and calibrated with daily HMP, QE_obs, and QS_obs data from the Sunilla station. The results provide monthly forecasts of the simulated outflow (QS_sim), which are validated with QS_obs values, with significant validation indicators: NSE (0.87), NSE-Ln (0.83), Pearson (0.94), R2 (0.87), RMSE (0.24), Bias (0.99), RVB (0.01), NPE (0.01), and PBIAS (0.14), with QS_obs being slightly higher than QS_sim. Therefore, it is important to highlight that water losses due to evaporation and infiltration increased significantly between 2019 and 2023.

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