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State legitimacy in Sahelian countries: Exploring the impact of insecurity on institutional trust in Burkina Faso

Porto Bazie,M. A. Diallo

Published 2025 in Cogent Economics & Finance

ABSTRACT

Abstract The security situation in Sahelian countries, particularly Burkina Faso, has deteriorated sharply in recent years, raising serious concerns about its impact on state legitimacy. This study examines how perceived insecurity affects citizens’ trust in core state institutions—the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. Drawing on theories of state legitimacy, fragile state governance, and the social contract, we use data from the 2019 Afrobarometer survey of 1,200 Burkinabé adults. A multivariate Probit regression model is employed to capture potential interdependence in trust across institutions. Results show that insecurity significantly reduces institutional trust, with a stronger impact observed in urban areas, especially toward the executive and legislative powers. Trust across the three branches is found to be interrelated. Additionally, factors such as access to basic health services, youth inclusion, education, living conditions, perceptions of corruption, and the government's handling of terrorism and economic management also influence institutional trust. The study underscores the need to combat insecurity in all its forms, promote good governance, and improve public service delivery. Strengthening local governance and addressing citizens’ needs are crucial steps toward restoring state legitimacy in Burkina Faso. IMPACT STATEMENT This paper employs a multivariate Probit regression model to empirically assess the impact of insecurity on citizens’ trust in state institutions in Burkina Faso. The findings show that increasing insecurity significantly undermines institutional trust, particularly in urban areas, and reveals interdependence between trust in the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. The study is significant as it provides evidence for policymakers to understand the erosion of state legitimacy in fragile contexts. It offers actionable insights for improving governance, enhancing public service delivery, and restoring trust through targeted interventions in security, health, youth engagement, and anti-corruption efforts.

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