SCIENCE@home

Treeline Species Distribution Under Climate Change: Modelling the Current and Future Range of Nothofagus pumilio in the Southern Andes

Melanie Werner,J. Böhner,Jens Oldeland,U. Schickhoff,Johannes Weidinger,Maria Bobrowski

Published 2025 in Forests

ABSTRACT

Although treeline ecotones are significant components of vulnerable mountain ecosystems and key indicators of climate change, treelines of the Southern Hemisphere remain largely outside of research focus. In this study, we investigate, for the first time, the current and future distribution of the treeline species Nothofagus pumilio in the Southern Andes using a Species Distribution Modelling approach. The lack of modelling studies in this region can be contributed to missing occurrence data for the species. In a preliminary study, both point and raster data were generated using a novel Instagram ground truthing approach and remote sensing. Here we tested the performance of the two datasets: a typical binary species dataset consisting of occurrence points and pseudo-absence points and a continuous dataset where species occurrence was determined by supervised classification. We used a Random Forest (RF) classification and a RF regression approach. RF is applicable for both datasets, has a very good performance, handles multicollinearity and remains largely interpretable. We used bioclimatic variables from CHELSA as predictors. The two models differ in terms of variable importance and spatial prediction. While a temperature variable is the most important variable in the RF classification, the RF regression model was mainly modelled by precipitation variables. Heat deficiency is the most important limiting factor for tree growth at treelines. It is evident, however, that water availability and drought stress will play an increasingly important role for the future competitiveness of treeline species and their distribution. Modelling with binary presence–absence point data in the RF classification model led to an overprediction of the potential distribution of the species in summit regions and in glacier areas, while the RF regression model, trained with continuous raster data, led to a spatial prediction with small-scale details. The time-consuming and costly acquisition of complex species information should be accepted in order to provide better predictions and insights into the potential current and future distribution of a species.

PUBLICATION RECORD

CITATION MAP

EXTRACTION MAP

CLAIMS

  • No claims are published for this paper.

CONCEPTS

  • No concepts are published for this paper.

REFERENCES

Showing 1-82 of 82 references · Page 1 of 1

CITED BY

  • No citing papers are available for this paper.

Showing 0-0 of 0 citing papers · Page 1 of 1