SCIENCE@home

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Andean Forests Using Potential Distribution Models (2010-2069)

Virginia Alberdi Nieves

Published 2025 in Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica

ABSTRACT

In the 21st century, climate change has become the greatest global threat that affects different countries in different ways, affecting different areas, from the increased risk of desertification due to rising temperatures to areas at risk of flooding caused by increased rainfall. Combating climate change has therefore become a priority for many forests in the Andes. In this research, a study was carried out on the possible changes in the forests, as this is one of the regions with the greatest variety of ecosystems and forest formations in the world, analysing the current and future distribution of eight forest formations throughout the study area, by means of potential distribution models, using Maxent software, under three emission scenarios RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5; with projections for the current period 2010-2039 and the future 2040-2069. The results show significant changes in the potential area of distribution of several forests across the different scenarios. Most of the analysed forests will suffer modifications in their current distribution, as is the case of the Lowland Forests and Highland Shrublands of the Humid Puna, which will decrease by more than 60% of their current extent in Bolivia. In the future distribution all the forests analysed will reduce their potential range, such as the Submontane and Dry Montane Forest of the Northern Yungas by 81.6% and the Low Andean Forest of the Western Xerophytic Puna (Peru) by 89.5% in the most restrictive scenario RCP 8.5, which may cause shifts to higher latitudes, with the loss of habitats.

PUBLICATION RECORD

  • Publication year

    2025

  • Venue

    Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica

  • Publication date

    2025-07-29

  • Fields of study

    Not labeled

  • Identifiers
    DOI 10.18172/cig.6341
  • External record

    Open on Semantic Scholar

  • Source metadata

    Semantic Scholar

CITATION MAP

EXTRACTION MAP

CLAIMS

  • No claims are published for this paper.

CONCEPTS

  • No concepts are published for this paper.

REFERENCES

Showing 1-27 of 27 references · Page 1 of 1

CITED BY