The Threshold and Lag Effects of Temperature on Pine Wilt Disease Show Significant Spatial Heterogeneity

Ruicong Zhang,Jixia Huang,Xiaoting Zhao,Yanqing Liu,Guofei Fang,Yantao Zhou,Maogui Hu

Published 2025 in Insects

ABSTRACT

Simple Summary As an economically important disease, pine wilt disease has posed severe threats to forest ecosystems both domestically and globally. Under the context of global warming, scientifically understanding the impact of temperature on pine wilt disease is critical for enhancing predictive and management capabilities. In this study, we investigate the thermal adaptation range of pinewood nematode under hot temperatures and elucidate its time-lag effects in response to temperature fluctuations within optimal thermal conditions. The threshold temperatures and lag periods vary from 19.5 °C to 25.1 °C and from 1 to 3 months in different provinces. Collectively, our findings establish a technical framework for analyzing threshold and lag effects in pine wilt disease, providing theoretical insights to support evidence-based prevention and control strategies.

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