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Changing forage-livestock balance on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Impacts of aridity and human activities.

Yang Zhang,Jin Wang,Yun Zhang,Bo Wang

Published 2025 in Journal of Environmental Management

ABSTRACT

Under the pressure of rapid climate change and intensified human activities, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is experiencing significant forage-livestock stress. While previous studies have mainly focused on the effects of meteorological drought, the combined impacts of agricultural and hydrological droughts remain insufficiently understood. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Forage-Livestock Stress Index (FLSI) during 2001-2018, a period characterized by rapid socio-economic transitions and the implementation of major ecological restoration policies, notably the "Returning Grazing to Grassland" program and the "Grassland Ecological Protection Subsidy and Incentive" policy. By integrating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), soil moisture (SM), and natural runoff, we construct a comprehensive Aridity Index (AI) to distinguish the respective contributions of aridity and human activities. Our results show that the overall FLSI has declined across the QTP, indicating a general reduction in grazing pressure. However, approximately 60 % of the region continues to suffer from forage shortages, with FLSI increasing notably in urban centers and surrounding areas. A multiple linear regression analysis reveals that human activities are the primary drivers of FLSI change, accounting for 63.96 % of the increases and 52.66 % of the decreases-surpassing the influence of aridity. While aridity has the most substantial positive effect in regions with adequate forage supply, human activities have the most significant negative impact in overgrazed areas. These findings highlight the necessity for spatially tailored grazing management strategies that consider both drought-related disturbances and anthropogenic influences to support sustainable livestock production and the rational use of natural resources in the QTP.

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