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Seasonal and Regional Patterns of Streamflow Droughts in Poland: A 50-Year Perspective

K. Baran-Gurgul,A. Wałęga

Published 2025 in Sustainability

ABSTRACT

Hydrological drought in Central Europe is becoming an increasingly serious threat to agriculture, industry, and people due to climate change and the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The main aim of the paper was to assess the spatial variability of streamflow drought in Poland. The spatial analysis was conducted using daily streamflow series from 340 gauging stations for the period 1973–2022. Hydrological drought was defined as a period with a streamflow lower than Q90%. The results show that, on average, hydrological droughts occur 52 times per year at a given gauging station. Drought duration and volume depend on the gauge elevation. At higher-altitude stations, shorter and smaller-volume droughts are most commonly observed. The longest droughts are recorded in Northern Poland, particularly in the Lakeland regions, which is a serious problem mainly for the agriculture sector. Hydrological droughts in Poland most frequently begin in summer and end in late summer or early autumn. Analyses showed that hydrological drought has a strong spatial distribution, and it is possible to identify five main regions with homogeneous drought duration and volume. Trend analysis of the annual number of low-flow days indicates no statistically significant trend at 46% of stations, while 54% exhibit statistically significant increases, with marked regional variability. The highest number of stations with statistically significant decreasing trends occurs in the Southern and Eastern Baltic Lake District and in the Central Poland Lowlands and Highlands with Polesie. The study highlights the necessity of enhancing water retention, particularly in the central, lowland regions of Poland.

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