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Spatiotemporal Inhomogeneity of Trends in Dry and Moist Heatwave Across Northern Hemisphere: Regional Variability and Driving Mechanisms

Linfeng Shi,Cheng Sun,Menghao Dong,Tian Wei,Zijing Guo,Wei Lou,Zichen Song

Published 2025 in ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT The increasing frequency of dry and moist heatwaves poses substantial risks to human health and ecosystem stability. While linear approaches dominate current heatwave variability analyses, nonlinear evolution patterns remain inadequately characterized. Recent advances in nonlinear trend detection algorithms have enabled more comprehensive investigations of climate system dynamics. Here, we implement nonlinear trend detection methodology to examine dry and moist heatwave evolution across Northern Hemisphere landmasses and elucidate their underlying physical mechanisms. Our analysis reveals that Northern Hemisphere heatwaves exhibit predominantly linear and quadratic trends, with pronounced continental-scale heterogeneity. Continental-scale analysis demonstrates that dry heatwave evolution is predominantly characterized by quadratic patterns across Asia (56.4%), North America (57.5%), and North Africa (58.2%), with substantial linear components (34.1%, 25.0%, and 34.7%, respectively). Regarding moist heatwaves, quadratic trends are dominant in Asia (53.0%), while similar proportions of linear and quadratic trends are observed in North America (54.6% and 40.2%, respectively) and North Africa (38.4% and 40.5%, respectively). Our analysis indicates that the underlying physical mechanisms driving dry and moist heatwaves differ. Dry heatwave evolution demonstrates robust coupling with geopotential height enhancement, which amplifies thermal extremes in arid regions through increased atmospheric stability, suppressed convection, and prolonged heat persistence. Moist heatwave intensification in tropical coastal domains exhibits strong association with increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which modulate atmospheric moisture content and monsoon systems, thereby maintaining high-humidity thermal conditions. Mid-latitude continental domains, particularly southern North America, exhibit primary dependence on specific humidity variations.

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