Assessment of potential water availability in the Ebro basin under future climate scenarios

ABSTRACT This study assesses the potential water availability in the Ebro River Basin under various climate change scenarios, integrating global hydrological models from the ISIMIP3b project with a GIS environment and the WAAPA water allocation model. For the historical period, the SIMPA model was used as a reference to validate natural runoff simulations. Climate scenarios from the IPCC AR6 (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were analyzed across two time horizons (2020–2059 and 2060–2099). The results show a progressive reduction in runoff and water availability, reaching up to 33% in the most unfavorable scenario. A significant increase in interannual variability is also observed, with more pronounced declines in water availability in the absence of reservoir regulation. The spatial distribution of impacts highlights areas with higher vulnerability due to limited infrastructure or high water stress. The study emphasizes the critical role of reservoirs in enhancing system resilience and underscores the value of flexible modeling approaches to support water planning in the face of climate change.

• Publication year

  2025

• Venue

  Ribagua

• Publication date

  2025-01-02

• Fields of study

  Not labeled

• Identifiers
  DOI 10.1080/23863781.2025.2544676
• External record

  Open on Semantic Scholar

• Source metadata

  Semantic Scholar

• No claims are published for this paper.

• No concepts are published for this paper.

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