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Global, regional, and national burden of ovarian cancer, 1990–2021, and projections to 2050: a cross-sectional analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Weimin Xie,Shuiping Tang,Rong Tang,Liping Li,Xiaohang Liu

Published 2025 in International Journal of Surgery

ABSTRACT

Background: Ovarian cancer remains the most lethal gynecological cancer, with fewer than 50% of patients surviving more than 5 years after diagnosis. This study aimed to analyze the global epidemiological trends of ovarian cancer from 1990 to 2021 and also project its prevalence to 2050, providing insights into these evolving patterns and helping health policymakers use healthcare resources more effectively. Methods: This study comprehensively analyzes the original data related to ovarian cancer from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database, employing a variety of methods including descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, age–period–cohort analysis, decomposition analysis, predictive analysis, frontier analysis, and health inequality analysis. The aim is to explore the disease burden of ovarian cancer and its changing trends in detail. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) for ovarian cancer significantly increased, while the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) showed a marked decline. In 2021, the ASIR of ovarian cancer was 6.71 per 100 000 population, the ASPR was 28.08 per 100 000, the ASMR was 4.06 per 100 000, and the ASDR was 115.15 per 100 000. As the Social Development Index (SDI) increased, the disease burden of ovarian cancer exhibited a trend of rising initially followed by a decline. Health inequalities between countries have slowed, but high-SDI countries remain the primary regions with the greatest disease burden. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of ovarian cancer increased with age, with population growth being a major driver of the rise in ovarian cancer ASRs. Furthermore, the effects of aging and epidemiological changes vary across different regions. Predictive results indicate that from 2022 to 2050, both the ASIR and ASPR for ovarian cancer will continue to rise, while the ASMR and ASDR will initially decrease before increasing again. High body mass index and occupational exposure to asbestos are the primary risk factors contributing to ovarian cancer. Conclusions: Although the disease burden of ovarian cancer showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, a potential rebound may occur in the future. The disease burden of ovarian cancer exhibits significant heterogeneity across age, time, and geographical regions. Greater attention to these factors is needed moving forward.

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