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Amazonian Ephemeroptera (Insecta) across space and time: from the last glacial maximum to future climate scenarios

F. Carvalho,F. Alvarez,Y. Shimano,Cleide Bahia dos Santos,P. de Marco Júnior,L. Juen

Published 2025 in Studies on Neotropical Fauna and Environment

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT This study investigates the dispersal potential of mayflies (Ephemeroptera) with a focus on Ulmeritoides flavopedes, Brasilocaenis irmleri, Tricorythopsis acara, and Simothraulopsis demerara over the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum), the present, and projected future scenarios. The four species selected for this study represent different life forms and body sizes and serve as important indicators for the assessment of climate change impacts. We hypothesize that dispersal behavior, habitat, and climate tolerance influence the distribution and conservation of Ephemeroptera species. Species with greater ecological flexibility are more resilient, while those with a restricted range are more vulnerable to climate changes. We selected the first eight principal components that explained more than 95% of the total variation in the original environmental variables. Ecological niches were characterized using three-dimensional hypervolumes constructed from environmental predictors. We chose the global circulation models CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P and MIROC-ESM to characterize the LGM (~22,000 years ago) and projections for the mid-21st century (2041–2060). The results suggest that B. irmleri and S. demerara have broad niches and are hardly affected by climate or land-use changes, while T. acara and U. flavopedes, with restricted niches are specialists in specific habitats and more susceptible to rapid changes.

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