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The Blue Carbon Cost Tool – understanding market potential and investment requirements for high-quality coastal wetland projects

Stefanie Simpson,Lindsey S. Smart,Emily Landis,Stephanie Van Laere,A. S. Kibria,Olga Albot,Mark Beeston,C.E. Lovelock,R. McDonald,Ryan P. Moyer,Thomas A. Worthington,Tania L. Maxwell,Phoebe Stewart-Sinclair,Mark D. Spalding

Published 2025 in Frontiers in Marine Science

ABSTRACT

Blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrasses, are important for climate mitigation. As carbon sinks, they often exhibit higher per hectare carbon storage capacity and sequestration rates than terrestrial systems. These ecosystems provide additional benefits, including enhancing water quality, sustaining biodiversity, and maintaining coastal resilience to climate change impacts. The widespread loss of blue carbon ecosystems due to anthropogenic activities can contribute to increasing carbon emissions globally. Monetizing blue carbon through carbon credits offers an avenue to generate revenue and incentivize conservation and restoration efforts. However, limited data on project costs and carbon benefits make prioritization of blue carbon projects challenging. To address these challenges, we have developed, in collaboration with blue carbon experts, the Blue Carbon Cost Tool. This is a user-friendly interface enabling comparison of three core market project components – 1) carbon credit estimation, 2) project cost estimation, and 3) a qualitative, non-economic feasibility assessment – to assess and compare potential for blue carbon projects. Tool simulations with data available from nine countries demonstrate (a) how factors such as country, ecosystem type and project scale drive variability, (b) the need for local or project-specific data to enhance accuracy and reduce uncertainty, particularly in tidal marsh and seagrass systems, and (c) that higher price tolerance or upfront capital is needed to bridge implementation and maintenance cost gaps. The Blue Carbon Cost Tool can aid project developers and investors to better understand market opportunity and the resources needed to develop high quality blue carbon market projects.

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