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Global supply chains on the move: panarchical reorganisation out of China

Clinton Free,N. G. O'Connor,Andreas Wieland

Published 2025 in International Journal of Operations & Production Management

ABSTRACT

This study investigates how Asia-Pacific supply chains reorganised from 2018 to 2023, as firms adapted to tariff escalation, geopolitical frictions and new industrial policies. Employing a process-oriented approach grounded in panarchy theory, we analysed 244 sourcing shifts away from China using a dataset of 543 firm announcements and media reports. A systematic coding of executive statements identifies the drivers of relocation and sectoral/geographic patterns in supply chain reconfiguration. We reveal a complex transition from conservation to reorganisation phases in global supply chains. Firms pursue China-plus-many portfolios that privilege diversification over exit and relocation patterns vary by industry. Despite widespread political rhetoric promoting reshoring, only 38 of 244 moves (15.6%) relocated to the home country, highlighting a significant gap between policy discourse and actual corporate behaviour. The study provides empirical results for supply chain reorganisation; further research may explore additional firm-level strategies. The resilience approach suggested by panarchy theory implies that tightly coupled supply chains enter release and reorganisation phases, investing in diversified, multi-country sourcing and aligning strategies with shifting industrial policies. The shift away from China influences regional economic development and international trade dynamics, consistent with industrial nationalism trends. This study contributes to the supply chain resilience literature by illuminating firms' strategic responses to global disruption. It extends panarchy theory by showing how nested, asynchronous adaptive cycles unfold across industries, firms and regions. It also reveals how supply chain transformation emerges from interdependence between firm-level agency, institutional memory and geopolitical constraints.

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